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May-12-2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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   SPC AC 122304
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 4
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004
   
   VALID 122229Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW
   ANJ 30 WNW MKE JEF TUL 25 SE OKC BWD 35 NW SJT 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S
   LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO RSL 20 W MHK 10 NNE ALO 40 NW AUW
   65 ENE ELO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY
   ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW
   CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20
   W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN
   40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF LBF EAR BIE 40 N DSM 45 SSE DLH 40 ENE ELO
   ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   AMENDED FOR W-CENTRAL/NW TX RISK UPGRADE...RETRANSMIT GRAPHICS
   
   REF WW 194 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM
   DETAILS ON AMENDED AREA.  OTHERWISE PREVIOUS 2000Z DISCUSSION
   FOLLOWS.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD
   THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW
   OVER EXTREME NWRN OK.  SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW
   SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY.  MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI
   THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK...
   
   AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND
   CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS.  INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE
   60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP
   TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES
   THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND
   NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2
   INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL
   KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT
   AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
   THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING
   SHEAR PROFILES.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT
   FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY...
   
   LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG.
    LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT
   THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   
   ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ...
   
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN
   VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS.  STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS
   EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL
   POOL.  AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG
   GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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