SPC AC 142002
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004
   
   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
   ERI 10 S CLE 20 NW CMH 10 SSE LUK 40 NE SDF 30 NNW SDF 30 WSW BMG 10
   N HUF 20 NNE LAF AZO 35 N MBS 45 E APN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT 15 NNW HDO
   40 SSE AUS 50 ENE CLL 20 ENE GGG 35 N TXK 45 S HRO 30 NW UNO 35 SW
   DEC 55 S CGX 30 ESE MBL 30 SE ANJ ...CONT... 20 E SBY 50 S RIC 30 S
   GSO 10 SW AND 30 SW AUO PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 4OM 55 NE SEA 35
   SSE SEA 30 NNW DLS 65 WSW PDT 25 NW OGD 15 NNE U28 10 NE DRO 55 NE
   4SL 30 SSW RTN 35 NW CAO 15 SSE GLD 15 SE MHN 25 NE PHP 15 NNE Y22
   40 NNW SDY 65 N OLF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 20 WSW CON
   10 E BDL 10 WSW ISP.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN LOWER
   MI...IND...OH AND FAR NRN KY...
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES/TN VALLEY...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI WITH A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE LOW ACROSS WRN IND...SWD ALONG THE MS
   RIVER VALLEY. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
   OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR DETROIT. SFC
   DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH
   LOCAL INSTABILITY MAXIMUMS LOCATED IN ERN LOWER MI AND ACROSS SRN
   IND.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD
   ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG VORTICITY MAX WILL SHIFT EWD INTO
   THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
   INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY
   ABOVE 7.0 C/KM ACROSS ERN LOWER MI AND ACROSS MUCH OF OH. THIS WILL
   FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
   NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE JET DRIFTS EWD ACROSS WRN
   OH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. 
   
   AS THE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   SLOWLY DECREASE. A SOLID LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO
   ERN OH..ERN KY AND WRN PA OVERNIGHT.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WRN MS
   AND WRN TN. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE WEAK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY
   THREAT WILL BE FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS WRN TN AND NRN
   MS WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER WITH 0-6 SHEAR
   AROUND 40 KT.
   
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO
   NORTH FROM MD TO ERN NY. A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN
   THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS
   IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN NY AND ERN PA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
   SHOWS WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND THIS
   WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THE WINDOW FOR
   SEVERE SHOULD REMAIN SMALL AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY
   AFTER DARK AS THE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/14/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z