SPC AC 161253
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004
   
   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LSE
   EAR 50 NW CDS 30 E CVS 10 NW TCC 40 SE SNY 25 SW BFF 30 NW CDR 40 NW
   HON 40 SSW DLH 50 NE EAU LSE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BRO 25 N NIR LFK
   HOT 40 NW EVV UNI LBE 10 NW RUT 25 S PWM ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG FAY
   35 WSW FLO 10 SSE CHS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 45 WSW HVR
   75 NE BIL BIS 35 ESE JMS 45 ENE BJI 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 65 E MQT
   35 SSW ESC 25 W JVL 15 WNW STJ 30 NNE P28 30 SSE BGS 20 NW DRT
   ...CONT... 35 WSW ELP 35 WNW ONM 50 W RTN 20 NW COS 4FC 35 NE GJT 35
   SSW BPI 40 WNW BOI 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...
   
   ...NEB AND SD THROUGH NW IA...MN AND WI...
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MN SWWD TO NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. NRN
   PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
   SRN PORTION WILL STALL TODAY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER AS LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   NOW OVER UT WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   FEATURE.
   
   LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOW WIDESPREAD HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING
   OVER CO WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER
   UT. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... PRESENCE OF
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR
   WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. THE LOW
   LEVEL JET AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
   DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING ELEVATED
   CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND
   SD. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   TIMING WRN EDGE OF THE THICKER CIRRUS SUGGESTS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
   ERN CO...WY...NEB AND KS WILL BEGIN TO RECEIVE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   SURFACE HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON. THE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DEEP MIXING IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   A SUFFICIENTLY WEAK CAP FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. INITIAL
   STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
   AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   STORMS CONTINUE EWD INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CAP AS THEY
   CONTINUE EWD...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED SUPERCELL MODES...DYNAMIC FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPDRAFTS SUGGEST STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO CNTRL
   NEB/S CNTRL SD BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING.
   
   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAINLY N OF
   THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY UNDERGO AN
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS HIGHER
   THETA-E AIR ADVECTS NWD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED
   WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD
   CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   AND GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
   
   TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CONDITIONAL
   UPON INITIATING A SURFACE BASED STORM THAT CAN TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF CAP IN WARM SECTOR...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
   SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH.
   
   
   ...ERN CO....WRN KS...W TX AND THE OK PANHANDLE...
   
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF DEEP
   MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM ERN CO/ERN NM...SPREADING INTO WRN
   KS...W TX AND THE OK PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM
   2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID
   EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z