SPC AC 162000
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004
   
   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
   MRF 40 SE LIC 15 SW SNY 25 WNW AIA 35 NE CDR 20 SE PHP 35 NNE ATY 10
   WSW STC 25 ENE MSP 35 N RST 30 SSE RST 45 WSW ALO 55 ESE OMA 25 WSW
   BIE 30 N RSL 45 WSW RSL 20 WSW DDC 25 S P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 50 ENE CRP
   50 NNE PSX 50 NE LFK 45 N GLH 15 N LOZ 25 WSW EKN 35 WSW ILG 30 SSE
   NEL ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG 15 E FAY 30 SW FLO 20 NNW SAV 15 WNW JAX
   40 E GNV 15 SE VRB ...CONT... ELP 45 SSE ALS 50 N ALS 20 WNW CAG 25
   SSE SUN 50 NNW BNO 10 S DLS 20 WSW SEA 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 25 N CTB
   25 NNW GTF 15 E 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 55 NNE MBG 40 ESE FAR 25
   WSW HIB 30 NE ELO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 20 NE MTW 40
   SSE OSH 15 NW MLI P35 25 NNE HUT 35 SSW P28 40 NW ABI 25 NW DRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS/NRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM SW MN
   THROUGH SE SD INTO NRN NEB WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB
   AND ERN CO. A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB
   WHERE UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA
   HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO ALL OF THE CIRRUS OVERSPREADING
   THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB
   WHERE MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
   
   CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
   ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CROSSES THE AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BECOME
   BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND SWD AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO THE BETTER
   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
   
   WINDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS WRN NEB AND FAR NW KS BUT SFC WINDS REMAIN
   BACKED FARTHER EAST. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE BETTER
   LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE SUPERCELLS
   MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE JET WILL INCREASE
   DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
   STRONG. BECAUSE OF THIS...A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR
   WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. STILL
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...AND A POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC
   TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS...W TX AND ERN NM AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A SOLID LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
   SRN SD...CNTRL NEB AND NW KS THIS EVENING...MOVING EWD INTO SE
   SD...ERN NEB...FAR IA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
   SHOULD DROP OFF.
   
   
   ...VIRGINIAS/NC...
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED
   ACROSS WRN NC EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN VA. MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
   1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND THIS WILL SUSTAIN A LINE OF STRONG STORMS
   ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE
   REGION AND THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXIST AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
   SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS
   THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z