May-23-2004 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Created: Sun May 23 01:14:21 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040523 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20040523 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20040523 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20040523 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 230102
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0802 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004
   
   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
   BIE 10 WSW HSI 25 NW EAR 15 S BUB OFK 50 ESE SUX 45 WSW ALO 30 NW
   CID 10 NW CID 25 SSW CID OTM 40 NE LWD 25 W LWD 25 N FNB 30 WNW BIE.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
   BIE 50 SW EAR 30 SSW LBF 30 WNW LBF 25 S MHN 30 S ANW 40 SW YKN 30
   NW FOD 30 ENE ALO 20 NNW DBQ 25 SE DBQ MLI 30 WSW MLI 35 NNW IRK 35
   NE STJ 30 SE BIE 30 SW BIE.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
   ART 10 S SLK 15 NW RUT 15 W EEN 10 NNE BDL 15 W BDR 20 SSE ABE 20
   ESE CXY 20 SE HLG 45 SE UIN 30 NW SZL 25 NW CNU 25 ESE END 40 WSW
   SPS 60 SSE CDS 40 S CDS CDS 40 W CSM 35 W P28 35 S RSL 30 SE HLC 40
   SW MCK 20 NNW SNY 55 N DGW 15 NW SHR 45 ESE BIL 70 NE BIL 70 WNW MLS
   30 NNW MLS 40 NW REJ 20 NNW 9V9 35 NW OTG 30 SSE EAU 30 NNW MBL 20
   NNE OSC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 WNW CDS
   20 W GAG 20 N DDC 45 NNE GCK 15 SSW GLD 15 WSW LIC 40 NNE DRO 10 SE
   4BL 15 ENE BCE 50 S ELY 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP ...CONT... 25 S MOB
   50 E MEI 10 E MSL 40 S CKV 40 E PAH 20 WNW MDH 45 E VIH 15 N JLN 10
   SSW BVO 10 SE OKC 35 SSW SPS 25 NW DRT ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 35 N
   PIE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 25 NE GDV
   30 NNE Y22 15 N MBG ABR 35 NNE ATY 55 NNE MSP 25 WSW IMT 40 E PLN
   ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS 30 SSE AUG.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB AND
   IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB...IA AND FAR
   NW MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...HIGH PLAINS...OH
   VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   
   ...TORNADO OUTBREAK IN PROGRESS FROM ERN NEB TO CNTRL IA...
   
   ...NEB/IA/IL...
   SCATTERED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB
   WITH ANOTHER TORNADIC SUPERCELL JUST TO THE NORTH OF OMAHA. IN
   ADDITION...SEVERAL HOOK ECHOES ARE LOCATED ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL IA. 
   THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR OMAHA SHOWS BACKED SFC WINDS WITH VERY STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MLCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500
   J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE 65 KT. AS THE TORNADIC STORMS
   CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE THREAT OF STRONG
   TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-3 KM STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 300 TO 400 M2/S2 ARE PRESENT AND THIS WILL
   FAVOR STRONG TORNADOES. EVEN A VIOLENT TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING IN THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SE NEB OR SW IA. THE
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE LATE
   EVENING WITH STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE AFTER DARK ACROSS CNTRL AND
   ERN IA. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE SUPERCELLS
   CONSIDERING THE PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION AND
   EXTREME INSTABILITY PRESENT SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY. SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
   FRONT FROM SE NEB EWD TO THE CHICAGO WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   A LARGE MCS WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MCS SHOULD
   MOVE EWD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND AFFECT IL...SRN WI...IND AND
   SRN LOW MI LATE TONIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE.
   
   ...KS/WRN TX/NW TX...
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM NCNTRL KS EXTENDING SWD
   TO THE FAR WRN OK. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TOWERING
   CUMULUS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND IN THE FAR ERN TX
   PANHANDLE. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE AND THIS IS
   INHIBITING STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD
   GET GOING. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RAPIDLY CONSIDERING THE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT.
   VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
   
   ...NY/PA...
   AN MCS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS WRN NY AND NRN PA THIS EVENING
   AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. THE BUFFALO NY
   00Z SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN
   PLACE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET
   POSITIONED ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN
   NY. AS THIS HAPPENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND THE TORNADO
   POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z