SPC AC 240102
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0802 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004
   
   VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
   DTW 40 ENE FWA 35 ENE LAF 40 N DNV 10 ESE MMO 15 E RFD 25 NE JVL 30
   NNW MKE 40 SE MTW 65 N MTC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
   AGS 35 SE AND GSP 10 ENE HKY 20 N GSO 35 N RDU 15 W RWI 25 E FAY 40
   SE CAE 30 NE AGS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
   ART 25 ENE ALB 25 NE EWB ...CONT... BID 25 N EWR 10 SE PSB 10 ESE
   ZZV 30 W SDF 25 SW POF 20 N MLC 55 ESE OKC 25 ESE OKC 35 NE OKC 15
   NE BVO 30 NE SZL 40 NE IRK 20 WSW DBQ 25 SE VOK 55 NW MBL 20 E APN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
   CDR 60 NE DGW 30 W 4BQ 20 S MLS 40 S GDV 45 WSW DIK 45 SSW DIK 40 NW
   PHP 45 SW PHP 30 NE CDR 20 W CDR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 20 SW BHB
   ...CONT... 20 SE JAX 30 WNW JAX 20 SSW AYS 50 NNW AYS 35 S AHN 45 NE
   RMG 35 SE BNA 30 NE MKL 35 N HOT 20 ESE DUA 20 ESE ABI 35 SW ABI 55
   ENE BGS 65 ESE LBB 30 WSW LTS 40 ENE MKC 25 W OTM 40 E MCW 30 NE EAU
   40 S CMX 50 NNW ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 15 SW FCA
   45 NNW GTF 60 SE HVR 20 NNW OLF 30 E ISN 35 ESE BIS 30 W HON 50 ENE
   ANW 30 WNW BBW 40 ESE SNY 50 E VEL 30 WNW DPG 35 NNW WMC 60 N LMT 30
   ENE EUG 30 S OLM 10 NNE BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE IL...SW
   WI...SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NW OH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND
   STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CAROLINAS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   SWWD FROM SRN WI ACROSS WRN IL INTO MO AND OK. SCATTERED SEVERE
   STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC ANALYSIS
   SHOWS DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 70 F AND THIS IS RESULTING
   IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG ACROSS
   OK...MO AND IL TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS
   MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FUEL THE STORMS THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
   
   THE 00Z SOUNDING AT ILX SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS
   WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. THIS SOUNDING SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS EAST OF
   THE COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AS A RESULT...THE
   SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN NRN IL...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI
   WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS. THE WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN IND LATER
   THIS EVENING AND THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
   
   FARTHER SW ACROSS MO AND OK...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAKER AND THE
   CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN AREAS FARTHER NW. THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL
   THREAT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO
   THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AFTER
   DARK BUT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
   MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
   
   ...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST
   ACROSS SRN NY. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A LAKE
   BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NY THIS EVENING. THE BUFFALO 00Z
   SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
   ABOVE 1.5 IN AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY
   TORNADOES. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
   THE LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SRN LOWER MI MOVES EWD INTO WRN NY
   LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN SWRN SD AND THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 00Z RAPID CITY
   SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WITH
   VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES....COLD AIR ALOFT AND
   LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z