May-24-2004 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Created: Mon May 24 16:44:05 UTC 2004 | |
Public Severe Weather Outlook | |
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The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event. |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probablistic Tornado Graphic |
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic |
SPC AC 241635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW LNK OMA 40 NNW OTM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 20 WSW TOP 35 ENE CNK 35 WSW LNK. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CNK 20 NNW OLU 25 NE OFK 10 NW CID 40 ENE MLI 25 S MMO 20 S DEC ALN 25 NNW EMP 20 SSE CNK 40 N CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ABR 50 W AXN 35 WSW STC 20 WNW RFD 25 SSE CGX 15 ESE LAF 30 SSW HUF 35 SW TBN 20 N JLN 40 WSW TUL SPS 45 E BGS 30 S LBB 55 N CDS 15 NNE GAG 10 S RSL 15 ESE BUB 35 NW ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW EFK 15 SE RUT 30 NE EWB ...CONT... ORF 10 NE EKN 30 NNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB ...CONT... 35 SE JAX 30 SW GNV 20 NNW CTY 65 SSW AGS 15 NE MCN 15 SSE LGC 25 W TOI 40 SSW SEM 40 W SEM 10 SE TCL 30 E MKL 50 SE FYV 50 WNW MLC 25 NNW MWL 20 SW BWD 25 WNW JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SE ELP 10 ESE ROW 20 S CAO 10 ENE LHX 25 WNW COS 40 WNW GJT 30 W 4HV 25 NNE CDC 60 W P38 70 NNE NID 60 S BIH 55 SSE TVL 20 ESE RBL 45 SE MHS 50 SE EUG 25 SW PDX 15 NNE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 50 WNW GTF 20 NNE BZN 50 SW BIL 35 WNW SHR 25 WNW GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE CDR 55 W VTN 45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 SSE TVF 35 SW HIB 15 NE EAU 40 NE MKE 30 SSE AZO 20 NNE DAY 10 NNW CMH ERI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST SWD INTO SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... --OUTBREAK OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY-- ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION... AS OF 15Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB INTO NERN KS TO VICINITY OF MKC AND INTO CNTRL MO. TRAILING DRYLINE STRETCHED SWD INTO WRN KS /E OF DDC/. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EWD TO NEAR TOP BY EARLY EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN IA SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WHILE DRYLINE MIXES EWD WITH BULGE DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL INTO NERN KS AT THIS TIME. WHILE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL NEB/ WILL LIFT NEWD INTO CNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE /OVER SWRN KS/ WILL EJECT NEWD INTO NWRN MO BY EARLY EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFICATION OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM ERN SD SWD INTO ERN NEB. 40-50KT SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /PRESENT ACROSS KS/NEB/ INTO DEVELOPING TSTM COMPLEX WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN MN/NWRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STORMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY SWD ALONG DRYLINE AS SWRN KS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F/ HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO NERN KS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER TODAY. EXPECT MLCAPES TO APPROACH 3000-4000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/SWRN IA SWD INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS WITHIN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT WILL YIELD LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS POTENT COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH THOSE STORMS WITH A LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/STREAMWISE VORTICITY WILL BE CO-LOCATED. EXPECT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO SEVERE MCS /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ OVERNIGHT EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS/COMMA HEAD CIRCULATIONS. ...OK/TX... VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS THIS MORNING E OF DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON E OF DRYLINE FROM N-CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA IS STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND POTENTIALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z ETA GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER NRN MEXICO WHICH WILL EMERGE INTO WRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROFILERS AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGEST BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM TUS TO ABQ TO AMA AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. ...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN ONTARIO INTO WRN/CNTRL PA THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD TODAY WITH REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING NY/PA EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP EWD TO VICINITY OF E-CNTRL NY BY 25/00Z. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW S OF LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NWD WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN MA/SERN NY SWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND AXIS OF 55-65KTS AT 500MB FROM PA/NY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED BY SLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OFF COOLER ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS. FARTHER S OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...HOWEVER FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN INITIATE. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z