Categorical Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 242144
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004
   
   VALID 242150Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
   LNK OMA DSM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 10 S TOP
   35 ENE CNK 25 WSW LNK.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
   SUX 40 ESE FOD 25 E CID 35 ENE MLI 25 SSW MMO DEC BLV 20 S TBN 20 SE
   JLN 30 WNW BVO 20 SW ICT 30 NNW SLN 30 E HSI OFK 20 ESE SUX.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUB 10
   W HON 25 N ATY 30 SSW AXN MSP MSN CGX 45 W LUK 55 WSW LOZ BNA ARG
   HRO TUL SPS 30 NW ABI 50 NE BGS 40 ESE LBB CDS 15 NNW CSM P28 15 E
   RSL BUB.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
   EFK 15 NNW PSM 10 SSE PVD ...CONT... 20 ESE ORF MRB PSB 35 NW ROC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL GFK CWA BEH
   DAY ZZV 25 S YNG 20 ENE ERI ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB
   ...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS
   ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25
   WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N GCK LAA 30 N ALS
   4HV P38 TPH RBL 60 NNE MFR OLM 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA FCA
   35 NNE WEY WRL 50 WNW CDR 50 NE CDR 30 SSE PIR 35 E MBG 70 NE MOT.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN
   NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER
   MO/MID MS VALLEYS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN
   PLAINS/MIDWEST/PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
   STATES/NERN U.S....
   
   AMENDED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK FURTHER EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND
   
   --OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED
   TODAY--
   
   ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   AS OF 19Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NE OF RSL. A DRYLINE
   EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WEST OF ICT AND THEN
   SWWD INTO WRN OK/TX NEAR LTS/AGS. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NEWD FROM
   THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND THEN EXTENDS SEWD
   FROM NWRN INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. EAST OF THE LOW/SOUTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT...THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE
   WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN 1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS
   COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
   LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
   NEB/NERN KS/SWRN IA/NWRN MO. REFERENCE WW 273 AND 275.
   
   THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS
   THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUGGEST
   WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AND SWRN MO/SERN IA AND WEST
   CENTRAL IL.
   
   ...OK/TX...
   EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SWD ALONG
   AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NWRN TX. THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASING MORE MOIST DURING THE PAST 24
   HOURS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE
   RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS MORE
   STRONGLY CAPPED THAN AREA TO THE NORTH...A DRYLINE BULGE IS
   INCREASING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN END AND ICT AND WITH ADDITIONAL
   HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
   ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BEHIND THE
   DRYLINE AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   FOR HIGH BASED CU TO DEVELOP. ANY CU THAT DEVELOP AND MOVES INTO THE
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS
   WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. A SMALL
   TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE
   DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BACK WWD OVERNIGHT AND SINCE STORMS WILL BE
   DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER
   SUNSET.
   
   ...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...
   SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING INTO WRN NY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN OH. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM
   SECTOR IS ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
   AREA...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF 55-65 KT
   MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE STRONG DEEP SHEAR
   PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER
   21Z AS ADDITIONAL HEATING RESULTS IN MORE DESTABILIZATION.
   THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY IF A
   LINEAR STRUCTURE CAN DEVELOP. REFERENCE WW 277.
   
   ..IMY.. 05/24/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z