SPC AC 030536
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
   CRP HDO 10 SE SJT MAF CNM 4CR SAF 50 W RTN TAD CYS DGW 40 ENE SHR
   4BQ REJ PHP 35 E MCK 10 NNE DDC 50 SW GAG MWL TPL CLL LFK 45 N POE
   LUL TCL GAD AND 25 ESE GSO 35 ENE RWI 25 NNW HSE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 20 NE CEZ
   15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 35 NNW OWY 20 WNW LMT 35 SSE PDX 45 SSE SEA 35
   NNW 3TH 15 SSW HVR 15 NW SDY HON 15 ENE OLU 30 SSE SLN 35 W TUL 30
   SW UNO 35 NNW HOP 25 N JKL 35 NE SBY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE
   ART.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...GULF COAST STATES...AND HIGH
   PLAINS....
   
   DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...THE MID-
   LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SPLIT INTO A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
   BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW.  MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MOST PROMINENT WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
   PROGRESS THROUGH BROADER SCALE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE INTO EASTERN U.S.
   TROUGH.
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES...
   MODELS SUGGEST MAIN LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS
   STATIONARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
   TODAY. HOWEVER...REMNANTS OF MASSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
   LIKELY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
   AREAS BY DAYBREAK...STABILIZING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
   MUCH OF THIS REGION.  PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
   INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY CLOUD
   COVER/DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
   POINTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...MID-LEVEL
   CAPPING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SMALL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
   HEATING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MIGRATING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
   OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CENTRAL
   GULF STATES BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS
   LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL
   ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
   DESTABILIZE.  INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS.  DESPITE PROBABILITY OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...30 TO
   50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
   MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY
   WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   BETTER INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL
   ZONE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE STRONG HEATING
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN MIXED LAYER IN EXCESS
   OF 2000 J/KG.  FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE NEAR/EAST OF THERMAL LOW
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
   SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE BENEATH BELT OF STRONGER
   WESTERLIES...PRIMARILY WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   
   INSTABILITY AFTER DARK ALONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH
   CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUATION OF SEVERE
   THREAT...AS MID/UPPER FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
   SHIFTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
   
   
   ...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING,  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 2000 J/KG OR SO APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY... AND
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA
   BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGHING
   EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY AID THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
   ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE
   ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH NORTHWEST
   MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF RIDGE AXIS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME
   LIKELY AS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
   RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
   SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED AS SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
   TOPS CREST OF RIDGE.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY
   WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION FROM SUPERCELLS TO AT LEAST SMALL MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING.  TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR THIS
   CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE SOUTHWARD THAN SOUTHEASTWARD...INTO
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER.
   
   ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH
   CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL
   BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES
   INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING MAGNITUDE
   OF MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE PACIFIC...BUT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
   STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 
   LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MICROBURSTS
   IN STRONGER CELLS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED
   SOMEWHAT BY 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/03/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z