SPC AC 041621
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004
   
   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
   TLH 20 WSW ABY 10 SSW ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY 40 NNE RDU 25 ESE
   ECG.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
   DVL 30 SE JMS 30 NE HON 55 WSW YKN 15 W GRI 35 N RSL 30 NW END 35
   WSW ADM 55 NNW ABI 50 W LBB 20 ESE CAO 15 SE LHX 35 ENE DEN 40 WSW
   BFF 50 ENE DGW 15 NW REJ 35 NW DIK 30 W MOT 25 NW DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 50 SW GUP
   40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 55 W ALS 10 E GJT 30 NNW PUC 30 SSE ENV 55 SSE
   TWF 30 SSE SUN 40 NNW BOI 50 WNW BKE 65 N 4LW 30 N LMT 55 ESE EUG 35
   E OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 25 SSE VOK 40 E DBQ 25 NNE
   IRK 35 NE MKC 25 WNW SGF 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 20 WSW LUL 30 ESE LUL
   60 ESE MEI TCL 25 SW HSV 30 SW BNA 15 N OWB 30 SSW BMG 25 NE YNG 20
   NW IPT 25 SE AVP 15 NNE JFK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
   U.S....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAINLY NWLY FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE U.S. AS WEAK
   MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KY/TN WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE
   WV/WRN MD REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ALSO...STRONG MID/UPPER
   LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PACIFIC...JUST S OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WILL
   SEND A MID LEVEL TROUGH ENEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
   DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL SHIFT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EWD
   OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
   
   WEAK SURFACE LOW...A REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER
   KY/TN...WAS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
   NEWD TODAY...WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NC WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
   EXTENDING ACROSS E CENTRAL VA/SERN MD AS WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGS EWD
   INTO SERN GA AND NWRN FL BY 05/12Z.
   
   ...SERN QUARTER OF THE U.S....
   
   AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN NC
   AND CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA.  MLCAPES ACROSS NC ARE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MORNING RAOBS INDICATED THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE 6.0-6.5C/KM. MOST EVIDENT IS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
   AT MID LEVELS FROM THE SW INTO CENTRAL NC ATTM.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
   ENHANCE UVVS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   WEAK SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS 20 KT OR
   LESS ACROSS THE REGION...SO WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT THE MAIN THREATS
   WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
   
   IN FL...AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES EWD/SEWD INTO NWRN PARTS
   OF THE PENINSULA...PULSE TYPE STORMS MAY BE THE RULE AS SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARIES CONVECT LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
   AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT ON
   ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE.  ETA MODEL DEPICTS
   STRONGEST VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVES SEWD ACROSS SD/NE/KS
   THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  BIGGEST CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW IS ESTIMATING
   NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE DEW POINTS. ETA MODEL BRINGS UPPER 50S
   DEW POINTS NWD INTO ERN ND. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE
   UPPER 50S IN SERN SD WELL AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. 
   THUS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS/DEVELOPING MCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  AIR MASS IS
   FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST CAPE AROUND 2500
   J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KT INDICATES THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS INITIALLY THEN DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS
   WITH MAIN THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 06/04/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z