SPC AC 090557
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
   BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 45 NNE MSV 25 W BFD 35 NNW MFD
   35 N LAF 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 25 NNE MKG 75 ESE OSC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
   CYS 30 NNE RWL 40 WNW CPR 35 WSW GCC 15 S 81V 40 NNW CDR 50 ENE AIA
   20 SE MHN 25 ESE BUB 15 SSW OLU 40 E HSI 50 ENE HLC 40 SSE GLD 30
   SSE LHX 15 WNW PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 WSW CYS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS
   30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 30 NNW
   RBL 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 40 NE JMS 25 W AXN 50 NNE MSP
   10 NNE RHI 15 WNW ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NRN IL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE FROM SERN WY TO ERN CO...
   
   ...SRN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...
   
   SURFACE PRESSURES WILL RISE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN THE WAKE OF UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEW
   ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AIRMASS HAS GRADUALLY MOISTENED
   UPSTREAM FROM THIS REGION WITH SWLY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOW WELL INTO
   THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG.  DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY
   STEEP...ROUGHLY 6-6.5C/KM...FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
   AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL EASILY
   DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
   MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS.  MEAN WIND VECTOR SUGGESTS THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
   EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  IN
   ADDITION...A MORE SLY COMPONENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR
   GRADUAL COOLING AT CAPPING LEVELS AND LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES
   ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION.  WITH PERSISTENT SELY
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S/60S IT
   APPEARS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLIER EACH DAY ALONG
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE WELL
   NORTH OF THIS REGION...HOWEVER STRONG VEERING PROFILES AND
   SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP. 
   LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
   TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN WY INTO
   NEB PANHANDLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE MOIST WITH TIME. 
   LATEST THINKING IS DIURNAL INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN WITH NEWD MOVEMENT/OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO NEB
   WHERE LLJ SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ...TX...
   
   N-S DEEP LAYER SHEAR AXIS HAS NOT MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST
   FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WWD SHIFT IS OBSERVED.  VERY MOIST
   PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROVE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS. OF SOME CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR VALUES...AT LEAST 20KT IN THE LOWEST 1KM.  THIS MAY SUPPORT
   SUFFICIENT ROTATION FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW/GUYER.. 06/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z