SPC AC 102013
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004
   
   VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
   HLC 40 ENE GLD 25 S IML 30 SE CDR 55 NE CDR 25 SSE PHP 45 W 9V9 40
   SSW 9V9 15 ESE EAR 40 NE HLC 15 W HLC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
   CDS 30 WSW CDS 25 ENE AMA 30 NNE EHA 35 NE AKO 55 NNE DGW 70 E BIL
   70 WNW MLS 40 SSW OLF 15 ENE SDY 30 SSW P24 40 ENE MBG 35 SSW MHE 45
   ESE HSI 45 SW END 15 SSW LTS 20 SSE CDS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
   WAL 30 NNE RIC 30 SSE CHO 25 SSE ROA 15 E PSK 15 WSW SSU 15 SSW EKN
   45 WNW MRB 15 S CXY 25 SSE NEL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
   SLO 15 NNW ALN 50 NNE COU 15 NNE IRK 35 WNW BRL 15 NNW PIA 20 S LAF
   10 SSE LUK 40 ENE LEX 30 SE LEX 55 SW LEX 40 WSW SDF 25 E SLO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD
   20 NW EAU 15 NNE VOK 35 WNW MKG 25 SSE MTC 30 NNW JHW 35 SW ALB 15
   SE BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 35 ENE LIC 20 W AKO
   20 NNE DEN 10 N GUC 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE
   BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB...CNTRL
   NEB...SRN SD AND NW KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   ...GREAT PLAINS...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW IN NE CO WITH A WARM FRONT
   LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN IA. AN INSTABILITY
   AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO WRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE
   VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
   SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS NM AND SE CO WHICH
   IS CURRENTLY NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN KS OVER THE LAST
   SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE
   SCATTERED STORM INITIATION OCCURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
   CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS QUICKLY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FAVOR STORM INITIATION BY 22Z EAST OF THE
   DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN NEB. THE GREATEST
   STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WCNTRL NEB...NW KS AND SRN SD
   WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS ACROSS NW KS AND CNTRL NEB WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
   STEEP LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL
   THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
   WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR
   DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD STRONG ASCENT SPREADING OUT INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS. A LARGE MCS SHOULD DEVELOP...TRACKING NEWD ACROSS ERN
   NEB...ERN SD REACHING MN AND IA LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
   MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   
   A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NRN IL ACROSS NRN
   IND. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MO AND
   AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD INTO IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
   LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST CONSIDERING
   THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
   EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WV EXTENDING
   ESEWD INTO ERN VA WHERE SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY NOTABLY
   ACROSS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
   1500 T0 2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS. FLOW IS PRIMARILY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL...FROM THE W AND NW AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS ACROSS
   THE AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR SEWD MOVING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
   WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
   AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z