SPC AC 120618
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
   P35 20 NNE SZL 20 SW JLN 45 W TUL 15 NE END 20 S HUT 55 N RSL HSI 30
   W OMA 10 NNW P35.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
   MRF 35 SE LBB 15 WSW P28 25 N HLC 70 S FAR 20 SSW HIB 25 NNW IMT 45
   WNW MKG 20 NNW FWA 40 WSW DAY 35 WNW SDF 10 SW HRO 40 NW DRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ERI 25 ESE EKN
   15 SW DAN 15 SSE ILM ...CONT... 20 SSE MSY 30 SSE BTR 40 SE ESF 30
   SSW TXK 45 NNW TYR 25 SSE DAL 35 SE DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 50 SSW
   LBB 15 SW GAG 40 W P28 45 ESE LIC 60 W PUB 35 W MTJ 45 WSW PUC 20
   SSW SLC 35 ESE LND 45 ENE COD 45 W GTF 85 NW FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 20 SE SEA
   35 SSE OLM AST.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
   KS...SERN NEB...NRN OK INTO WRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN...CNTRL ND PARTS
   OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
   AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN
   STATES IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NWD INTO
   MANITOBA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN STATES. 
   SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE BROAD WRN U.S.
   UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WILL
   EVOLVE INTO SATURDAY. DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW
   IN N CNTRL KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND W TX BY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
   FRONT WILL EXTEND ENEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EXTREME NRN KS OR SRN
   NEB INTO IA BEFORE CONTINUING NEWD AS AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THROUGH
   WI. WARM FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO SC AND GA.
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOW 70S BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
   KS...PARTS OF OK...TX AND SERN NEB. WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A
   BAND OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THIS BAND OF ASCENT IS
   TIMED TO BE ACROSS CNTRL KS/NEB BY MID AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH
   PEAK HEATING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
   DRYLINE AND NEAR TRIPLE POINT ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NE KS AND SE NEB
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG MIXING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WEAKEN CAP. STRONGEST LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND E OF TRIPLE POINT IN
   VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS NEWD INTO SE NEB.
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
   MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE RISK AREA
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ONE
   OR MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AS
   IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT
   WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
   
   
   OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO OK/TX
   AND SPREAD EWD. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THIS
   AREA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING.
   
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...
   
   A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ERN
   DAKOTAS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
   MS VALLEY. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS
   REGION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY
   OF OCCLUDED BOUNDARY OVER WI OR NEAR WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES FROM CNTRL/NRN IL INTO NRN IND. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
   
   ...GA AND SC...
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS
   SC INTO GA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL
   OR PULSE STORMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 06/12/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z