SPC AC 151945
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
   SBY 10 WSW SHD 25 SSE BMG 40 W FWA 25 NE MFD 30 W ELM 40 NNW MSV BDL
   15 NNW BID.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
   STC 25 E MSP MCW 50 WSW DSM 20 NW FNB 30 WNW SLN 15 SW GAG 25 SW AMA
   35 NW TCC 45 WNW TAD 10 WNW DEN 25 SW BFF 30 WSW VTN 55 SW ABR 45
   SSE FAR 30 NNE STC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
   MOB 40 E LUL 25 SSE CBM 25 SSW MSL 15 NE HSV 20 WNW RMG 10 WSW CSG
   15 ENE MAI 15 NE AQQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW GDP 20 E 4CR 10
   NNW SAF 35 NW 4SL 60 WSW FMN 60 WNW GCN 45 WNW IGM 35 ENE DAG 30 SE
   BFL 45 ESE FAT 60 SE TVL NFL 15 S BAM 40 E EKO 20 SW RWL 30 ENE CPR
   10 SSE 81V 45 N PHP 60 ESE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 50
   WNW 3HT 40 E S80 45 WSW S06 35 ENE 63S.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 40 SW ESC
   40 S MTW 25 NW BEH 10 ESE DTW ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA 15
   NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LBB 55 SSE MAF
   25 WNW JCT 35 W BWD 20 SW SPS 20 NNE FSI 25 NE CSM 35 WNW CDS 10 ESE
   LBB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS FROM
   SWRN MN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AL...
   
   ...PLAINS...
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING ZONE OF DEEP
   CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS OF CO...AHEAD OF EJECTING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS RESPONDED TO THIS FEATURE
   WITH AN ESELY COMPONENT.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
   MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN CO WHERE LAPSE RATES HAVE
   STEEPENED.  IT APPEARS A CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY
   WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.  WITH TIME...STORM MERGERS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS
   STRUCTURES AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES TOWARD THE LLJ WHICH WILL FOCUS
   OVER WRN KS AFTER DARK.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT
   OVER NCNTRL NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO SD
   WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION. 
   SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE EARLY STORM MODE...ESPECIALLY OVER SD BEFORE
   ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO A MORE LINEAR FASHION ALONG ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
   STORM CYCLE.
   
   ...OH VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
   
   A NARROW ZONE OF YET TO BE OVERTURNED QUALITY AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM
   CENTRAL IND...EWD ACROSS OH INTO SRN PA.  THIS ZONE IS BECOMING
   QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY ALONG NRN EDGE OF MORE TROPICAL INFLUENCE
   SPREADING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS OVER
   IL HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL IND WHERE IT CURRENTLY IMPINGES ON E-W
   ZONE OF DEEPENING CONVECTION.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND
   IN AREAL COVERAGE BEFORE OVERTURNING REDUCES INSTABILITY.  LARGE
   HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES...
   
   NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING/DEVELOPING NNEWD
   ACROSS AL/GA ATTM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOMEWHAT
   STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WELL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER SERN TX.  HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   SUGGEST STORMS MAY ROTATE SUFFICIENTLY FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. 
   CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
   
   ...CENTRAL TX...
   
   SWWD PROPAGATING CONVECTION IS APPROACHING CENTRAL TX ON BACK SIDE
   OF UPPER TROUGH.  WITH NLY COMPONENT ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR
   AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LARGE
   HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STRONGEST ACTIVITY BEFORE
   DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/15/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z