SPC AC 171242
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004
   
   VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF 50
   WSW ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 N LYH 30 NNE PSB 40 NNW MSV 25 N BAF 20 E BOS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
   ROW 35 WNW PUB 10 WSW DEN 25 S AKO 35 NNE RSL 20 ESE SLN 35 N PNC 45
   NNE CSM 55 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 NNE ROW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW COT 30 SSW TPL
   15 N ACT 20 E SEP 15 NE BWD 50 E SJT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP
   30 ESE ALM 30 NE 4CR 30 WNW LVS 35 NW 4SL 40 WSW FMN 45 S PGA 50 NW
   EED 50 SE BIH TVL RBL 35 SW MFR 45 NNW LMT 85 NNW WMC 30 WSW OWY 60
   SSE BYI 50 W IDA 75 E BKE 45 N BKE 15 E ALW 30 S S06 30 N MSO 35 NNW
   HLN 65 SW GGW 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 15 SSW INL 30 SE BJI 30 SE ABR
   25 ENE RAP CDR 30 ESE AIA 25 WNW BBW OFK FOD LSE 15 NNW RHI 10 ESE
   MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN / NRN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
   ELONGATING NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES THIS
   PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW PERSISTS
   FROM WY NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AROUND THE SERN
   PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH...CIRCULATION NOW OVER NV IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE EWD...REACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON /
   EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   FURTHER EAST...UPPER HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE
   VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER NRN AR MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
   TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AROUND NRN FRINGE UPPER RIDGE. 
   ENHANCED BELT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
   SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MS ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW IS INDICATED ATTM INVOF SRN LK MI...WITH A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO INTO SRN KS AND A WARM FRONT ACROSS
   LOWER MI INTO NRN PA.  THIS LOW / FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
   WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY...WITH MOST DEFINED PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY
   FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS SERN CO / SWRN KS / THE TX OK PANHANDLE
   REGION.  FINALLY...COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA / SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO CENTRAL KS / WRN OK...
   SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED OVER SERN CO / SWRN KS
   THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY APPROACHING VORT MAX NOW OVER NV.  AIRMASS
   SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN 50S
   / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 30 TO 40 KT WILL PROVIDE
   FAVORABLE VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
   AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS NERN
   NM / SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES INVOF SURFACE
   BOUNDARY.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK /
   KS. 
   
   ...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST...
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  WEAKENING
   COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD
   ACROSS PA / SRN NY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  MEANWHILE EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS NRN MS / NRN AR / TN / KY WITHIN WARM SECTOR...AS UPPER VORT
   MAX MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
   WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO
   PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  GREATEST THREAT
   APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SERN NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG RETREATING
   WARM FRONT...AND SWD INTO VA INVOF LEE TROUGH WHERE ADEQUATE
   LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST.
   
   ...ND...
   MINIMAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PARTS OF ND / NWRN MN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 
   ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE -- AND
   ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z