SPC AC 202004
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004
   
   VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
   HSI TOP TUL 25 NNE LTS CDS 30 N CVS 35 NW RTN 35 S CPR 35 NNE DGW 15
   SE CDR 20 SW BBW 40 SE HSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 45 ENE CLL
   TYR DAL 20 NNW MWL 35 NNW ABI 50 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SW DMN 40 SSW
   GNT SAF 60 WSW RTN ALS 30 NW CDC 35 SW ELY OWY 55 NE BKE 30 NE CTB
   ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK ABR 40 NNE BJI 25 NE AUW 15 WSW STL UNO 65
   WSW MEM TUP 25 SSW HSV ATL 25 NE MCN 65 N AYS 35 S SAV.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SERN WY/ERN CO/WRN KS/...
   PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS SERN CO AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN SERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CO MOUNTAINS WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
   DEEPENING NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NERN CO AND SERN WY. THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AREA...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
   ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN
   EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE CO PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREATS. THOUGH THE LOWER 3 KM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...THE
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWEST KM MAY SUPPORT
   A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
   ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. REFERENCE WW 499.
   
   CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS BY THE TIME THE STORMS
   REACH THE WRN KS BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE
   MAIN THREAT AS THE COMPLEX MOVES EWD ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK...
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN KS/OK EXTENDS FROM
   NEAR DHT/AMA SEWD INTO NWRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG.
   STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. AS THE LOW
   LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A
   CLUSTER AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NWRN AND POSSIBLY N CENTRAL OK WITH
   MAINLY A WIND THREAT.
   
   ...EXTREME SRN GA/N FL AREA...
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV MOVING INTO WRN AL WEST OF TCL. AN OLD
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS EXTREME SRN GA WWD INTO THE WRN
   FL PANHANDLE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 90S NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG.
   THE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE MCV AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED
   IN NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
   ...THE VERY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 6 KM SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE SHOULD
   BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND DARK WITH
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/20/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z