SPC AC 301632
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004
   
   VALID 301630Z - 011200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
   OSC 30 ESE MBL 10 ESE OSH 20 NE LSE 25 SW MSP 35 E AXN 35 W HIB 65 E
   ELO.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
   TCC 10 NNE CAO EHA 25 WSW GAG LTS 55 SW SPS 45 NE BGS 20 WSW LBB 45
   E TCC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 55 ESE SOW
   45 SSE U17 35 SSE EKO 25 NNW U31 20 N BIH 50 SSE BIH 50 SE FAT 20 SW
   FAT 25 ESE SCK 45 NW UKI 35 NE 4BK 55 SSE YKM 55 NW 4OM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 NE UCA 15 SSW
   EWB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW STL 35 NE EVV
   30 E LUK 10 NW PKB 15 SSE CAK 50 W CLE 20 NNW BEH 35 S LSE 15 SSE
   OTG 15 W YKN 35 ENE BUB 10 E HSI P35 15 NNW STL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ISN 15 ENE BIS
   20 E FAR 20 NE ELO.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR GRT
   LKS/UPR MS VLY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI
   PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEAK CYCLONIC REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...
   WITH MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONTINUING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SE
   ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS INTO NEW ENG.  STRONG IMPULSE IN THIS JET...
   NOW OVER WRN ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO MOVE TO S OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z
   THURSDAY AS DOWNSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER ME EXITS THE CANADIAN
   MARITIMES.
   
   FARTHER S...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IN SATELLITE/RAOB DATA OVER THE
   LWR OH VLY SHOULD TRACK E ALONG SRN STREAM JET THROUGH THE REMAINDER
   OF THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE MID
   ATLANTIC STATES/NC.
   
   OVER THE SRN RCKYS/HI PLNS...NEG TILT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CO/NM
   SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...WHILE UPSTREAM
   TROUGH NOW ALONG THE SRN CA CST MOVES NE INTO NV.
   
   ...UPR MS VLY TO UPR GRT LKS...
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT PRECEDING UPPER IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM WRN ONTARIO THIS
   AFTERNOON.  CURRENT TRACK OF SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST UPLIFT
   WILL REMAIN IN CANADA. BUT GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST
   CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
   A BAND OR TWO OF STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM PARTS OF
   WI AND PERHAPS ERN MN INTO NRN MI.
   
   35-40 KT WNW FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   AMPLE SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LIMITED /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60/...COOL
   MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 13C AT 500 MB/ AND STRENGTH OF SHEAR
   SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.
   
   ...SD...
   A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY IN SD...IN
   AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG WRN END OF SAME FRONT
   CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS.  A FEW CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
   BLACK HILLS.  WHILE SURFACE HEATING COULD BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500
   J/KG...LOCATION BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEEP
   SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.
   
   ...SRN HI PLNS...
   CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
   PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS TODAY...FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE SWD ALONG THE
   CAPROCK.  AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THIS
   REGION...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR BENEATH WRN FRINGE OF WEAK
   UPPER IMPULSE NOW IN CO/NE NM. THE TUCUMCARI PROFILER ATTM SHOWS
   THAT BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG /30-35 KT/ WLY MID LEVEL FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE POISED TO OVERSPREAD W TX.
   
   CONVERGENCE OVER REGION WILL BE WEAK...BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT TO HELP INITIATE A FEW STORMS INVOF LEE/INVERTED  TROUGH
   OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION LATER TODAY. GIVEN EVEN MODEST /30 KT/
   DEEP SHEAR...WITH MLCAPE LIKELY EXCEEDING 1500...POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS THAT MOVE S/SEWD
   INTO WEAK LLJ LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ...VA/CAROLINAS...
   COMBINATION OF HEATING AND POSSIBLY INCREASING ASCENT/DIVERGENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER KY MAY CREATE FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG DIURNAL STORMS ALONG AND E OF THE VA/NC/SC
   MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY. LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW...25-30 KT WLY MID
   LEVEL WINDS...MID LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7.O DEG PER KM AND SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 F ALL SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ...INTERIOR PAC NW...
   SCATTERED STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL LIKELY ONCE
   AGAIN DOT PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...WHERE INVERTED VEE PROFILES
   WILL EXIST BENEATH IMPULSE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 06/30/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z