SPC AC 080601
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
   BML CON BDL JFK WAL 55 SSW RIC CHO AOO ELM UCA 10 WNW MSS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
   DVL FAR RWF DSM IRK JLN ICT 10 NW HUT LBF AIA DGW 10 NE 4BQ ISN 60 N
   ISN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GDP 50 ESE ALM
   50 E LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 25 WSW P38 35 W NID 40 SE
   FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW BIH 45 N EVW 20 ENE COD 20 SW MLS
   75 NW ISN ...CONT... 45 ESE INL 15 WNW EAU 40 E DBQ 30 N IND 20 NW
   HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 W BLH 70
   WSW PRC 30 SE SOW 35 ENE SAD 70 E DUG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
   THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
   VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS....
   
   STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
   WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY.  CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PROGGED TO
   CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST.
   LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION TODAY.  UPSTREAM...BROADER-SCALE LOW WITH
   EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
   NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES VICINITY.  PRIMARY MID/UPPER JET
   STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...INTO THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LIKELY WILL
   PLAY ROLE IN MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
   STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 08/12Z ACROSS PARTS OF
   WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEAR/NORTHEAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE
   LOW...WHERE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION
   SHOULD BECOME MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
   PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO
   WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY
   DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY MID DAY...
   WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT
   RISK FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
   WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN
   GRADIENT BETWEEN THERMAL LOW NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AND
   WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
   WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F IN UPSLOPE
   REGIME...SURFACE HEATING IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED
   LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   THUS...AS 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AIDS PROPAGATION OF
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING...
   TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ORGANIZED/INTENSE AS IT SPREADS INTO UPSLOPE REGIME.  VEERING
   PROFILES FROM EASTERLY AT THE SURFACE TO MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.  DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO AID EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
   DAKOTA/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   NEBRASKA/EASTERN KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...CONSIDERABLE
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE THREAT.  MODELS ALL SUGGEST
   ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THIS
   BOUNDARY WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL WARMING SHOULD INCREASE INHIBITION FROM WEST
   TO EAST ACROSS KANSAS...BUT HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
   APPEARS POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WEAKENING FRONT.  ETA
   SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SPREADING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY MAY CONTINUE ON SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME
   INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY SUPPORTS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH SHEAR PROFILES
   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
   
   ...NORTHEAST STATES...
   GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRE-
   FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTH OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC
   CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEYS INTO THE EASTERN
   VIRGINIA/DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
   DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED
   LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
    THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK... 30 TO 50 KT
   CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR
   FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.  A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
   EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
   APPROACHING THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
   REGION.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY
   THREATS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE
   EVENING HOURS AND SPREADS TOWARD NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/08/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z