SPC AC 122037
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004
   
   VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15
   SW RHI CID 40 WSW DSM BBW MHN PHP MBG 45 NNW ABR 45 E FAR 30 ESE BJI
   45 W INL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
   CSG 20 N 0A8 20 NW MSL 45 S CKV 45 NNW CSV 15 NE HSS GSP 25 ENE MCN
   20 SE CSG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 30 S HEZ 55
   S GLH 45 ENE PBF 25 WNW UNO SZL 40 NW CNK MCK LAA 45 S 4CR 35 NW GDP
   INK SJT 15 SW PSX ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS EVW 20 NNW RKS 45 S CPR 55
   SSE DGW 40 W SNY SNY 10 NNW AIA CDR RAP 20 WNW Y22 BIS JMS 35 SE TVF
   20 W TVF DVL 55 N ISN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG 25 W CON 15
   NE BDL 20 SW GON.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MBL 35 S MTW 35
   ESE JVL MMO 15 NW CMI HUF DAY 25 SSW TOL LAN 35 SE MBL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70
   S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE AL/TN/GA REGION...
   
   CORRECTED TO ADD A 5 TORNADO PROBABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MO
   RIVER VALLEY REGION
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION...
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD...NORTH OF
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT...WHILE OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS
   HAVE FORMED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW
   PRESSURE IN S CENTRAL SD. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE/MLCAPES TO NEAR 3500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT IS
   MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS ARE
   ABLE TO INGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
   IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ANCHORED
   OVER SD UNTIL CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN AND STORMS BECOME
   SURFACE BASED...LIKELY SOMETIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS
   BECOME SURFACE BASED...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WNWLY FLOW
   ALOFT...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
   WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING A GREATER THREAT AS SYSTEM HEADS SEWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NWRN IA TONIGHT.
   
   AIR MASS IS ALSO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ACROSS NEB...BUT
   CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM THE STORMS IN SRN SD SWD
   INTO NRN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER ACROSS NEB THAN IN
   SD...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN AND NWRN MN...BUT
   OTHER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   COLD FRONT IN NWRN MN. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...THE  SHEAR WOULD
   STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ...AL/GA/TN AREA...
   12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AS
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER/MID 70S. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
   ...BUT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SEWD MOVING CONVECTION WITH
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
   
   ...AZ...
   12Z AND 18Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS HAD INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS
   FROM THE SURFACE TO 650 MB...OVERLAYED WITH MOISTURE FROM 650 TO
   300/200 MB. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
   MOUNTAINS IN EAST CENTRAL AZ/SWRN NM. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
   WEAK...SOME COLD POOLING WITH STORMS SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF SLOW MOVING STORM COMPLEX AS
   THEY MOVE WWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/12/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z