SPC AC 152015
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
   HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
   IWD 10 NNW EAU 25 SSE RST 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50
   WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 35 WNW ATY 15
   ENE RRT.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
   DAB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 30 ESE HUM 30 NNE BTR 45 W JAN 25 WNW MEI 15
   N TOI 35 NW ABY 30 NNE AYS 25 NNE SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 30 WSW MKG 30 NNW
   SPI 15 NNW ALN 40 SSE PAH 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG
   ...CONT... GON ABE 30 NNE LBE 20 SSW FKL 40 WSW ERI ...CONT... 70 NW
   GGW 15 WSW MLS 35 ENE 4BQ 45 NW PHP 40 WSW ABR 50 N DVL ...CONT...
   30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW DRA 65 ESE U31 15 NNE OWY 65 S S80 GEG
   40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... LRD 40 NW NIR 50 SSW CLL 30 WNW LFK 30 N GGG
   50 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 25 WSW DHT 10 SW CVS 30 WNW HOB 35 SSW INK 80
   SW P07.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
   U.S....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL MT....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
   U.S.  THIS IS RESULTING IN A NWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   INTO THE SERN U.S.  MEANWHILE SWLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF
   THE U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND GULF
   OF ALASKA.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER
   NRN VT SWD THROUGH ERN NY AND NJ INTO ERN NC.  THE FRONT THEN
   CONTINUES WWD AND NWWD THRU CENTRAL GA AND AL INTO NWRN AR BECOMING
   WARM FRONTAL INTO S CENTRAL NE.  A LOW IS OVER ERN SD WITH A WEAK
   COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD INTO SWRN NE AND NERN CO.
   
   ...GULF COAST REGION FROM SERN LA INTO NRN FL...
   
   AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE JUST N OF THE GULF COASTAL AREAS WITH
   MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG.  THIS AREA HAS BEEN CARVED OUT AS
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF THE SEA BREEZE
   AND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH.  MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE AROUND 7.0C/KM ACROSS THIS REGION WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
   LEVEL FLOW.  LATEST RUC MODEL CONTINUES SLOW SWD PROGRESSION OF THE
   COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AL/NRN MS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING TO INITIATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
   EARLY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS AND
   SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL NE INTO N
   CENTRAL KS AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THIS AIR MASS IS MOSTLY E OF WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THAT
   EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SD INTO NERN CO.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
   MID/UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND
   4000 J/KG.  IN ADDITION...LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPPING
   INVERSION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE ERN EDGES OF THE INSTABILITY.
   LATEST RUN MODEL INDICATES SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SERN SD INTO
   NRN WY WILL AID IN THE INITIATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
   TONIGHT.  GIVEN THAT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 7.5 AND
   8.0C/KM...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR NEAR THE
   FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE MAY FAVOR
   DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING STORMS.
   
   ...WRN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MT...
   
   MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR 35-45 KT.  LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHEAR IN THE
   LOWEST 3 KM UNDERNEATH SWLY 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.  THESE
   SOUNDING ALSO SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND
   8.5C/KM ON NWWD EXTENT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO SWRN MT. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
   DESTABILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG
   FAVORING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...PARTS OF AZ...
   
   AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE ACROSS SERN AZ WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
   J/KG AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. 
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK ELY FLOW ALOFT OVER
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS WRN AZ THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 07/15/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z