SPC AC 170202
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0902 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004
   
   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
   SGU 35 WSW GCN 40 W SOW 45 N TUS 70 S GBN 40 S EED 45 SSW LAS 25 N
   DRA 40 WNW P38 20 ENE P38 35 SSE SGU.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
   7R4 35 N POE 35 WSW PGO 30 W FSM 30 E FYV 10 WSW MEM 50 N MEI 30 W
   PNS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
   P24 10 W P24 20 E DIK 35 SSE MLS 15 WSW BIL 20 NNE 3HT 40 NNE LWT 15
   SW OLF 50 NNW P24.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 45 ESE MOT
   25 NW VTN 45 NNW GAG 35 ESE AMA 60 WSW TCC 30 E TCS 35 W ELP
   ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25
   WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 N LFK 20
   NNW DAL 15 NW OKC SLN 25 E DSM 40 WSW CWA 15 ESE APN ...CONT... 10
   ESE NEL 35 N BWI 20 SSE LBE 30 WNW EKN 30 NE 5I3 50 NNE ATL 35 N MCN
   50 S AGS 40 NNW CHS 15 ENE CRE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF AZ AND NV...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN MT THROUGH WRN
   ND...
   
   CORRECTED FOR TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN MS...THEN
   TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL AR. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
   UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z RAOB
   SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT
   WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7C AT 6 KM. AN MCV CENTERED
   OVER NE OK WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING.
   MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF AR...BUT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN LIMITED.
   
   FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY INCREASE AS
   THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE MORE UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RESPONSE FROM THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
   WHICH MAY INCREASE TO 20 OR 25 KT...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND
   LIFT ALONG AND E OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR THROUGH
   CNTRL AND SRN MS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUS POTENTIAL FOR
   STORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT STILL EXISTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
   BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE
   INTO AN MCS. HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES.
   
   ...AZ THROUGH SRN NV...
   
   STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING WWD THROUGH THE DESERT VALLEYS OF SRN AZ
   AND INTO SRN NV. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT
   OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND...
   
   STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN MT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR
   PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
   A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN ND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM
   SRN CANADA MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
   EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE BY
   LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
   
   
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS...
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD FROM PARTS OF THE
   GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY S OF A DIFFUSE
   BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z.
   HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LIMITED AND
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z