SPC AC 100602
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
   CSM 50 SW GAG 55 SSW LBL 20 SSE LAA 45 N LAA 45 SW GLD 30 S GLD 40
   NW P28 35 WNW END 50 SW END 30 NW CSM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
   EFK 25 E ALB 30 SSE MSV 30 S CXY 25 NW MRB 25 N MGW 15 E YNG 20 N
   ERI.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
   LTS 35 S AMA 30 S CAO 25 S PUB 25 NNE 4FC 30 NNW LAR 15 SSW DGW 30 E
   DGW 45 NNE RSL 35 SE SLN 30 ENE PNC 50 NE OKC 40 WNW ADM 45 S LTS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 30 NW JCT
   60 SSW TYR 30 SW MLU 20 NNW MLU 10 NNE ELD 25 WSW TXK 50 ENE DAL 45
   WNW MWL 70 NE BGS 15 W ELP ...CONT... 15 SSW IPL 30 SSW EED 20 N GCN
   45 S MTJ 30 NW GUC 30 NW EGE 40 S LND 45 SSW COD 35 N COD 40 ESE BIL
   15 SSE 4BQ 35 ESE GRI 10 NE COU 45 E SLO 20 ESE MIE 25 ENE TOL
   ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 40 ENE DAN GSO 15 S CLT 20 SSE CAE 25 S CHS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE 63S 30 S YKM 20
   NW RDM 35 ENE EUG 20 SW PDX 20 NE SEA 25 ENE BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SE CO...SW KS...NW OK
   AND THE FAR NE TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   AND SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND PA...
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS...
   A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BACKED UP AGAINST THE MTNS IN ERN CO WILL
   PROVIDE A FOCUS TODAY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS MODERATE
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS
   AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE PLAINS OF ERN CO. STRONG NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL CAUSE THE STORMS TO ACCELERATE SEWD INTO SWRN KS DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTAIN
   SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR SW KS SHOW 2000
   TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE
   BY 21Z. BACKED SFC WINDS AND A STRONG SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
   RESULT IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING...FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT ACROSS FAR ERN CO...SWRN KS AND NW OK THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS. IN ADDITION...HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK SEWD ACROSS
   THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS. THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD
   INTO NW OK DURING THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS
   DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN CO AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. THE
   INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP
   THE STORMS GOING SEWD OVERNIGHT...ORGANIZING INTO AN SSEWD
   PROPAGATING MCS. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT
   AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BE SUSTAINED WITH
   BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE MCS TRACKS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
   WRN OK.
   
   ...NORTHEASTERN US...
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY MID-DAY. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL SPREAD 35
   TO 45 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MOST OF NY AND PA
   DURING THE DAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP
   INITIATE CONVECTION IN WRN NY AND WRN PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
   STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY EVENING.
   UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ...ARIZONA...
   SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F ACROSS SRN AZ WILL
   ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW
   SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK AT THE MID-LEVELS...LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   EXTREMELY STEEP. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING AS MULTICELLS ORGANIZE DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
   SHORT-LIVED...DECREASING IN THE EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z