SPC AC 050100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004
   
   VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
   TLH 20 ESE VLD 10 SSE SSI ...CONT... 15 ENE MIA 45 W MIA 40 S FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 50 SE PHX
   30 WSW INW 25 SW PGA 20 W BCE 40 WSW U24 50 NNW DPG MLD 30 W JAC 50
   S COD 35 SSW GCC 45 NW PHP 40 SE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 85 NW CMX
   30 NW EAU 45 WSW FOD 25 SSW CNK 20 S GCK 35 W PVW 20 ESE INK 90 SSE
   MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LRD 15 W AUS
   55 E ACT 35 SSE PRX 40 SSW HOT 35 SSE PBF 40 ESE MLU 15 ESE HEZ 30 S
   GPT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN ABY 40 SSE
   AGS FLO 10 NNW OAJ 30 ESE EWN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
   PENINSULA...
   
   ...FL PENINSULA...
   THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED 40 NE PBI AT 0030Z...AND
   LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A SLOW WWD MOVEMENT.  TPC FORECAST
   BRINGS THE CENTER OF FRANCES ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
   MORNING ACROSS MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...AND THEN TRACK W/WNWWD TO
   THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 12Z SUNDAY.  TROPICAL TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
   RIGHT QUADRANT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA. 
   IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE EYEWALL...
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTIVE
   FEEDER BANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
   WILL REMAIN STRONG /0-1 KM SHEAR AT 30-40 KT/ THROUGH THE FORECAST
   PERIOD...SUPPORTING THE TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO NWRN MN...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH ERN CO BY 12Z
   SUNDAY.  00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL
   MN SWWD ACROSS NRN NEB TO ERN CO.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM NERN CO NEWD TO ERN SD ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS ALLOWED PARCELS TO REACH
   THEIR LFC.  GIVEN THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF
   THE FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL
   DECREASE.  
   
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS TO NEB/SD OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
   ENEWD SUPPORTING A COUPLED MID-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40 KT NOSING INTO NEB/SD. 
   THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO SD...WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
   AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUPPORTING ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 09/05/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z