SPC AC 040457
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
   ELP 30 ESE TCS 30 SE ABQ 45 SSE SAF 10 NW TCC 35 ENE CVS 30 SW LBB
   55 SSE MAF 30 ESE P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PFN 30 S AYS
   40 E CAE 55 NNE RWI WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 55 E SOW 55
   WNW GUP 35 WSW PGA 35 SSE NFL 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE
   BNO 55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 45 SSE AKO 10 NW DDC
   15 SW TUL 25 SW PBF 30 W LUL 10 ESE GPT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND WRN
   TX...
   
   ...NM/TX...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NERN NM/TX PNHDL WILL PROGRESS ESEWD
   ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK TODAY AND INTO AR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEXT
   UPSTREAM SYSTEM /NEAR 38N AND 126W/ WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE
   LOWER CO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP VORTEX FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
   WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NRN TX WWD INTO
   E-CNTRL NM BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE LEE OF
   HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS ERN NM AND SWRN TX.
   
   ELEVATED TSTM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND POSSIBLY SRN OK WITHIN WAA REGIME
   ALONG NOSE OF 25-35 KT LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD
   AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DIABATIC
   HEATING IN IT/S WAKE ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX. WHEN COUPLED WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...EXPECT AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
   TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
   SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO
   AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL/ERN NM EWD INTO WRN TX.
   
   STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS IS FORECAST ACROSS ERN
   NM/SWRN TX OWING TO ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT INVOF FRONTAL ZONE.
   HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER E ALONG COLD FRONT...WEAKER SHEAR AND
   LINEAR NATURE OF FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 10/04/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z