Oct- 9-2004 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 9 07:06:00 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041009 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041009 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041009 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041009 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 090701
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 25 E PDX
   20 SSE SLE 30 S ONP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BIH 60 SE TVL 10
   NW RNO 40 W OWY 40 SSE TWF 45 WSW MLD 50 SW ENV 60 N BIH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S BPT 45 ESE LFK
   10 W LFK 20 NNW TPL 50 NE JCT 35 S JCT 35 W ALI 35 WNW MFE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM
   20 SSW SAF 50 NNE SAF 20 WSW EHA 35 SW ICT 25 NW JLN 35 SE HRO 50 NE
   LIT 25 SW HSV 25 SE RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25 E SAV.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   
   TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NEWD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.  WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION
   EXPECTED...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY GRADUALLY
   INCREASE ALONG THE LA/MS COAST AS CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPROACHES
   THE COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  ONGOING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
   FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INHIBIT
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL
   TRAJECTORIES INTO THIS REGION. HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD
   INLAND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CIRCULATION WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STRONG
   UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION.  AS A
   RESULT...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ...WRN U.S...
   
   APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL DIG SEWD INTO CA ALLOWING TROUGH AXIS TO
   MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG
   BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS OVER NV MAY AID CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  OTHERWISE...ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST AS STEEPER LAPSE
   RATES SPREAD ACROSS POST FRONTAL MARINE AIRMASS.
   
   ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z