SPC AC 110101
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004
   
   VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 7R4 25 SSW ESF
   55 SW TYR 15 NNW ABI 55 SSW CDS 55 N CDS 35 SE GAG 45 W TUL 45 ENE
   FSM 40 WSW UOX 15 NE 0A8 30 ESE CSG 15 SSE SAV ...CONT... DAB 50 W
   ORL 20 WNW FMY 55 E EYW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 35 S PRC 40
   SE IGM 45 SW LAS 35 SW DRA 50 NNW DRA 50 NW P38 DPG 30 SE MLD 40 S
   BPI 20 E RKS 35 NNW COS 25 ENE RTN 35 WSW TCC 50 ESE GDP 40 SSW P07.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN LA INTO SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PNHDL...
   THE REMNANTS OF T.S. MATTHEW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SWRN MS...IN THE
   VICINITY OF HEZ...AT 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS
   IT MOVES NWD TOWARD SERN AR BY 12Z MONDAY.  40 KT SELY LLJ
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN AL
   INTO AR...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NWD TO
   THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM
   LA TO AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALREADY AT SLIDELL LA VAD.
   LOW-LEVEL WAA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER DEFORMATION ZONE
   EXTENDING FROM OK TO GA/NRN FL TO THE NORTH OF CLOSED LOW OVER TX/OK
   AND MATTHEW WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
   THESE AREAS.
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...MAINLY WITHIN THE MOIST
   AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM ERN LA TO FAR
   SWRN AL.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL
   FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH AFTER 04-06Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DECREASE...
   PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   00Z SOUNDINGS AT FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON INDICATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   ABOVE INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
   WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AZ...WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN NV SEWD INTO
   SRN NM...AND EVENTUALLY FAR SWRN TX.  WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
   VALUES WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED V PROFILES
   SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERE
   LEVELS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/11/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z