SPC AC 120049
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004
   
   VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PFN 30 SSW TCL
   15 ENE UOX 25 WNW ARG 10 N SGF 10 NE SZL 35 SSE IRK 25 SW SPI 45 SW
   BMG 45 NE BWG CSV RMG MCN SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 40 SSE IGM
   20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD BPI RKS ASE PUB
   45 ENE TAD 45 ENE CVS 15 WNW MAF 95 SSE MRF.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN NM/FAR WEST TX...
   BINARY STRUCTURE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO
   CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AS THE WRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   RETROGRADES WWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN CA.  THE ERN SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NM PER WV IMAGERY...WILL
   CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED
   OVER NM/FAR SWRN TX.  THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARMING
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES.  THIS
   COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN OVERALL
   DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SEWD TO
   FAR SWRN TX...AND GREATLY DIMINISH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO OR 30-40 SW ELP
   AT 00Z PER ELP RADAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER
   AS IT TRACKS ESE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  GIVEN THE ABOVE
   REASONING...THIS STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DURING
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  IF THIS STORM REMAINS STRONG TO SEVERE DURING
   THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL
   AFFECTING FAR SRN HUDSPETH COUNTY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE U.S.
   ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN
   SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE SMALL AREAL
   COVERAGE OF THIS ONE SUPERCELL...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE
   WARRANTED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/12/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z