SPC AC 150545
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 20 E JAX
   ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 40 SW EKN 30 NNW HTS 10
   SSE MIE 45 NNE FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 BHB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   MODELS SUGGEST RETROGRESSION OF UPPER HIGH AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
   WILL OCCUR AS LARGE-SCALE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BROADENS
   WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF VIGOROUS IMPULSES MIGRATING AROUND
   NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.
   
   A JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...TOPPING RIDGE NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.  AS THIS
   FEATURE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...MODELS INDICATE LARGE
   NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING OVER THE
   OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EASTERN GULF STATES...WILL LIFT
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  A COUPLE OF SMALLER
   SCALE SHORT WAVES COMPOSE BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH ONE MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALL CENTER PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   ...MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
   U.S...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS STRENGTHENING FROM NEAR THE
   FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  ENHANCED FORCING WITH THIS
   FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...WHICH BY
   DAYBREAK APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
   INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.  WITH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
   AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOW TO MODIFY IN WAKE OF PRIOR SHORT WAVE
   AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   A SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST WITH ONGOING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.  DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
   RATES...DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S...
   CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE IN ENVIRONMENT WITH
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
   IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME MAY BE SUPPORTING
   ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST OF THE KEYS AND
   SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...VEERING FLOW WILL MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN FLORIDA
   PENINSULA.  EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS WITH
   FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER... STRONGER STORMS APPEAR
   LIKELY TO FORM OFF COASTAL AREAS.
   
   OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
   ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
   VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
   OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NARROW
   PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE.  40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST...AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST
   ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE MODEL FORECAST
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS... PROVIDING AT LEAST
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   QUICKLY DEVELOP EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 10/15/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z