SPC AC 160511
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 45 WSW SLK
   UCA ELM 30 N MSV 10 N ALB EEN 10 ESE PSM ...CONT... 20 ENE SBY 45 N
   RIC 20 WSW SHD 25 NW MGW ERI 60 W BUF.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.  HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL
   COOLING/DRYING HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND
   ONLY SLOW MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS
   A RESULT ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVE
   MINIMUM.
   
   NEXT IN SERIES OF JET STREAKS/SHORT WAVES TOPPING RETROGRADING
   PACIFIC RIDGE IS ALREADY DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
    MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH COASTAL AREAS LATE
   SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE
   CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE INLAND.  MID-LEVEL COLD
   POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...AND IS NOT PROGGED TO MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING.  WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINING DRY...PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEAR REMOTE.
   
   ...UPPER OHIO/LOWER LAKES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   STRONG MID/UPPER JET IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  MODELS
   INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL TURN EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
   BY MID DAY...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC
   COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN LEFT
   EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
   EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA BY
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
   
   AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AS LOW AS -28C...LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN
   SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY.  THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS
   EARLY AS 18Z...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   
   OTHERWISE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
   GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...DEVELOPING IN
   COOLING CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z