SPC AC 190554
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
   MOB 10 SW JAN 45 S GLH 35 SSE PBF 50 NE PBF 30 N MEM 55 NNE MKL 30 S
   OWB 40 E BMG 20 WNW LUK 40 SSE LUK 35 W JKL 45 SSW TYS 20 NE ATL 25
   ENE CSG 30 N DHN 40 SW TOI 55 NNE MOB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MHE 30 SE BUB 25
   ESE LBF 30 E SNY BFF 55 SW RAP 20 SSE REJ 10 NNW MBG 25 SE ABR 30 S
   MHE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM 50 SSE DLS 70 SE
   BNO 30 NNE EKO 40 WNW ELY 65 ESE TPH 40 NW NID 25 NW SMX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GLS 50 NNE HOU
   60 NNE LIT 10 SE SLO 20 NW IND 30 N DAY 30 WSW HLG 20 ENE ACY.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
   VALLEYS...
   
   ...TN VALLEY/MS/AL/GA...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG AN AXIS FROM
   NRN LA ACROSS NRN MS INTO WRN KY. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
   BE WEAK AND THE DAY 2 SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.
   
   A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE CNTRL AND
   SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE WRN TN
   VALLEY BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 80S F
   YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A COLD FRONT WILL
   APPROACH NRN MS IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STORM INITIATION APPEARS
   MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN NRN MS AND SRN TN BY
   LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO
   THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION BUT STORMS STILL
   SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS NRN MS AND AL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY ACROSS NW MS
   SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60
   KT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
   WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP EAST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVE SSEWD DOWN THE
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT. IF SFC TEMPS CAN WARM MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
   FORECASTS ACROSS MS AND AL...A COLD POOL COULD DEVELOP WITH A MORE
   WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NW MS...AL AND NW GA.
   HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MS AND AL.
   THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A
   LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES EWD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL WEAKEN
   THE LOW-LEVEL JET...REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...SRN OH VALLEY AND NRN TN...
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN OH
   VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
   MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
   LIKELY RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT ACROSS SRN IND...KY AND TN. THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
   DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 10/19/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z