SPC AC 221628
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004
   
   VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
   BIE 30 WSW EAR 35 S ANW 25 NW 9V9 45 WNW AXN 50 SSW DLH MSN ALN 30
   SE JBR 40 E ELD 60 WNW COT 50 ENE P07 35 E ICT 20 S BIE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 SW PVW
   50 SSW P28 10 NE RSL HLC 45 SSW GLD 10 WSW RTN 40 ENE 4SL DRO 25 E
   GJT 30 NE CAG 50 NNW DGW GFK 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 70 WNW ANJ 20 N
   SDF 30 SSE MSL 45 NNW GPT 10 NE ESF 15 WNW LFK 40 WNW NIR 45 SSE
   LRD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 10 N MLB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
   SURFACE LOW NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
   DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL NEB/S-CENTRAL SD THIS
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM NOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND
   LIKELY SHIFT NWD INTO FAR SERN SD/SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
   DRY LINE ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONG MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM
   SERN SD INTO ERN NEB.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD ACROSS NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA/SERN MN
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE NRN MS
   RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL PLACE REGION NEAR AND JUST EAST
   OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITHIN FAVORABLE REGION FOR ENHANCED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE LOW AND
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVE QUICKLY EWD.  HOWEVER...12Z
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUSPECT OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS FOR
   MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG CAPPING AND ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE.  IN FACT...ETA CONTINUES TO FORECAST LITTLE OR NO
   QPF TODAY OVER THIS REGION.  THIS ASPECT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN
   UPGRADING TO A MODERATE...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE LOW CENTER/COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
   NEAR WARM FRONT BETWEEN 21Z-00Z AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AND DEEP VERTICAL MOTION AIDS IN OVERCOMING CAP.  SHEAR
   WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ALONG
   WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IF STORMS REMAIN LINEAR ALONG COLD
   FRONT. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY SHIFT
   EWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH
   AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND BECOMES MORE CAPPED.
   
   FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL NEB...STRONG CONVERGENCE AND A DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP SUGGESTING A SHALLOW LINE OF
   HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD
   FRONT SURGES ESEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE HEATING ABATES THIS EVENING.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
   STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
   LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE EWD PUSH TO DEEP CONVERGENCE ACROSS TX 
   TODAY...WITH 12Z ETA KEEPING H85 WIND SHIFT ALONG A CENTRAL AR TO
   BIG BEND REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...RICH
   MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO CENTRAL TX
   WITH LARGE AREA OF MID 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A H85 DEW POINT
   NEAR 18C OBSERVED AT DRT THIS MORNING. ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX AND LIFT
   NEWD THROUGH THE DAY TOWARDS ERN OK...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
   EXPECTED INTO THE OZARK REGION/MO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PLUME OF
   CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER TX
   INTO SERN OK AND POSSIBLY AR WHERE STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE
   WILL BE FOUND ALONG WRN EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING NOW IN PLACE OVER
   CENTRAL/ERN TX.  THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
   PRIMARY THREAT...SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/RH IN PLACE FOR A THREAT OF TORNADOES
   ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z