SPC AC 250044
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004
   
   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF BGS SPS 30
   E MLC 45 ESE FSM 10 WSW LIT PBF 50 ENE ELD 15 E MLU 25 WSW MCB 35
   SSE GPT ...CONT... 10 W GLS 15 WNW LRD.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SCNTRL TX INTO WCNTRL LA...
   WEAK SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND
   HEATING PROVED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL TX
   TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AR/LA LATER THIS EVENING.  
   STRONGEST TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD THROUGH ECNTRL TX
   INTO WCNTRL LA ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
   EXISTS.  ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...DECREASING INSTABILITY
   WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE STORMS.
   
   FARTHER SW...TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING INTO SCNTRL TX TOWARD THE
   RIO GRANDE WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   WEAKENING GIVEN PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL REMAINS
   MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH
   HAIL/HIGH WINDS.  THESE TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
   EVENING.
   
   21Z RUC/18Z ETA SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS
   DEVELOPING FARTHER N IN NERN TX INTO SERN OK AND SWRN AR IS LOW. 
   EVEN IF TSTMS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/25/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z