SPC AC 292005
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004
   
   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW
   OTM 30 NNE DSM 35 W MCW 30 NW MKT 30 E STC 60 SSE DLH 35 W RHI OSH
   RFD BRL 45 SW OTM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC
   AZO LAF MVN POF 25 N HOT 25 NE PRX DUA 30 N ADM 40 W TUL 20 WSW FNB
   40 NE OMA 20 WSW SPW 25 ENE BKX 50 SE MBG 50 NE MBG FAR 10 SE BJI
   ELO 95 ENE ELO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PSX 40 S AUS 30
   WNW HDO 35 NNE DRT 25 SW SJT 60 WNW MWL 20 NNW OKC 30 W EMP 30 ENE
   BIE 30 SSE SUX 20 N OFK 30 WNW BUB 15 WSW MHN 35 E CDR 55 S Y22 35
   NE BIS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 30 ENE UCA 15 WSW MSV 30 NW
   ILG 15 SW MRB 35 SSW EKN 15 SSE BLF 20 NNW HKY 30 ESE SPA CAE 30 SSW
   CHS ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SW AQQ 20 E TOI
   15 WNW ANB 45 SW BNA 20 WNW MKL 25 SE ELD 40 NNE POE 20 SE BPT.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...MN...WI AND IL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS...
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS...
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   MOVING INTO WRN SD/NEB WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING ACCOMPANYING
   90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NEB. AT THE
   SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW WAS SITUATED OVER NERN SD AS OF 19Z WITH
   ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO NRN WI.
   PRIMARY COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN NEB
   INTO CNTRL KS...WHILE A SECONDARY...WEAKER COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT
   WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM NERN KS SWWD INTO CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL TX.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS FIELD/TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT OVER WRN IA/SERN NEB...LIKELY IN
   RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEEP-LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL SYSTEM. DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/SRN MN
   INTO IA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES NOW
   APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ALONG FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
   SUPERCELLS LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS. EVOLUTION INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE IS
   ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD
   ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL.
   
   FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD
   #2366.
   
   OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG/N
   OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/NRN MN EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN
   GREAT LAKES AS 50-60 KT SLY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WI. WHILE LARGE
   HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP NEARER TO SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ACROSS WARM
   FRONT. 
   
   FINALLY...TCU HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS AHEAD OF SECONDARY
   COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NRN MO
   SWWD INTO CNTRL OK. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TENDS TO
   DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WARM SECTOR /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND A PROGRESSIVELY
   WEAKENING CAP SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
   EVENING. INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS FRONTAL
   ZONE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH AN EVOLUTION
   INTO MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH TIME.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/29/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z