Nov-10-2004 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 10 00:37:48 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041110 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041110 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041110 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041110 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 100032
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CST TUE NOV 09 2004
   
   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW LBB 25 N ROW
   15 N GNT 25 SW CEZ 55 NNE 4BL 35 NNW GJT 40 NNW CAG 30 E RWL 25 SW
   BFF HLC 30 NE P28 20 SW OKC 70 SSE CDS 55 SSW LBB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED/INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NERN NM ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
   FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM AND INTO FAR WRN TX.
   INSPECTION OF THE 00Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LIMITED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND A SUBSTANTIAL CAP ABOVE 800-750 MB
   HAVE HAD A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WRN TX. NONETHELESS...A ZONE OF FORCED
   MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND FAR SWRN KS TONIGHT.
   
   DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON CURRENT CLOVIS VWP
   AND 00Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY
   SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
   OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z