SPC AC 100534
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 PM CST TUE NOV 09 2004
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELY 65 WNW P38
   65 ESE BIH 60 S BIH 30 E FAT 60 N SAC 40 ESE RBL 20 WNW SVE 30 WNW
   WMC 50 WNW ENV 25 ESE ENV 50 SW DPG 55 SE ELY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HUM 40 NW BTR 20
   SW POE 30 NE HOU 50 S CLL 35 ENE AUS 15 SSW SEP 30 SSW LTS 65 SW GAG
   45 SSW LAA 35 NW GLD 25 S MCK 30 SSW FNB 45 NNW SZL 25 NE ALN 20 SW
   OWB BNA 40 S SEM 20 WNW PFN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /CURRENTLY OVER S-CNTRL CO/N-CNTRL NM/ IS
   FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSLATES ESEWD AND PHASES WITH
   INTENSIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
   AT THE SURFACE...PACIFIC COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO CO/NM SYSTEM WILL
   PUSH EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM LOW
   PRESSURE OVER CNTRL OR S-CNTRL OK SWD INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY
   EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY SWD
   THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...EVENTUALLY
   OVERTAKING PACIFIC FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE ARKLATEX
   REGION.
   
   ...OK/AR/TX/LA...
   10/00Z SRN PLAINS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
   MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF PACIFIC
   FRONT OWING TO A SHALLOW ELY FETCH OFF THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
   LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT AIR
   MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE IN PROGRESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX
   PNHDL/WRN TX WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST
   OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
   CONTINUE ENEWD TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWER SURFACE FRONT WITHIN
   LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG 35-45 KT LLJ. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG PACIFIC FRONT OVER
   PORTIONS OF ERN OK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING
   OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E.
   MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR
   PROFILES AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
   FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL...STRONG WINDS
   AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.
   
   EXPECT MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO SHIFT EWD INTO AR
   TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR S AS NERN TX/NRN LA.
   
   ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z