SPC AC 101259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST WED NOV 10 2004
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE
   OKC 15 ENE TUL 25 NNE FYV 40 S HRO 25 WNW HOT 45 NNE TXK 15 N TXK 10
   ENE PRX 20 NE ADM 55 ESE OKC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELY 65 WNW P38
   65 ESE BIH 60 S BIH 30 E FAT 60 N SAC 40 ESE RBL 20 WNW SVE 30 WNW
   WMC 50 WNW ENV 25 ESE ENV 50 SW DPG 55 SE ELY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HUM 40 NW BTR 20
   SW POE 30 NE HOU 50 S CLL 35 ENE AUS 15 SSW SEP 30 SSW LTS 65 SW GAG
   10 NE EHA 20 N GLD 30 SE MCK 30 SSW FNB 45 NNW SZL 10 SSW ALN 20 SW
   OWB 45 SW BNA 40 S SEM 20 WNW PFN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK/WRN AR...
   
   ...ERN OK/WRN AR...
   
   COLD UPR LOW MOVING EWD CO-LOCATED WITH SURFACE LOW OK PANHANDLE AT
   12Z. 40-50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET CENTRAL TX INTO WRN OK CONTINUES TO
   INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD.  BAND OF CONVECTION GENERATED BY
   FORCED ASCENT AND LITTLE AVAILABLE CAPE WRN OK EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   AND MOVE EWD MOSTLY ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW INTO
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ON THE RETURN FLOW FROM WESTERN
   GULF...HOWEVER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD AIR
   ADVECTING EWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO
   UPPER 50S SERN OK ALONG WITH 7C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   BY LATE AFTERNOON UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EWD TO CENTRAL OK/KS
   BORDER WITH CONTINUED 30-40 KT SLY LLJ ERN OK/WRN AR AND 60KT 500 MB
   WIND MAX ROTATING EWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN OK INTO WRN AR.
   
   LAST TWO ETA RUNS INDICATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE PCPN SIGNAL
   DEVELOPING ERN OK 21-00Z SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN AR DURING THE
   EVENING.  ETA DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPES TO 1000 J/KG INTO SERN THIRD OK
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP
   ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ALONG WITH MDT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NOTED
   ON 12Z SOUNDINGS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT OUN/FTW.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON ERN OK WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS. PRIMARY
   THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO
   OCCUR GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.  ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN AR WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING LATE EVENING
   AS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.
   
   ..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z