SPC AC 101630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CST WED NOV 10 2004
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW
   P28 30 NE P28 40 ENE BVO 25 SSW HRO 40 N HOT TXK 30 SE DUA 40 S OKC
   30 SSW END 50 SW P28.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BAM 60 NW P38
   65 ESE BIH 50 ESE BIH 55 NW BIH 35 WSW RNO 40 S SVE 25 NE SVE 25 NW
   WMC 35 NE BAM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 25 NE LFT 40
   N BPT 45 SSE CLL 35 ENE AUS 35 ENE ABI 20 SSW LTS 20 S GAG 20 SE LBL
   35 WNW GCK 55 SE GLD 10 ENE MHK 20 SE SZL 25 SSE BLV 30 SSE OWB 30
   WSW HSV 25 N MEI 30 SSW MOB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN KS/OK
   AND WRN AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE SHOULD TRACK DUE EWD
   TODAY...AND REACH THE NW CORNER OF AR EARLY THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
   SHOULD WEAKEN AS ITS CONTINUES E INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LWR OH
   VLY LATER THURSDAY.
   
   ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW...NOW OVER WRN KS...WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP SE
   INTO NRN OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES E AWAY FROM
   THE RCKYS.  BY EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THAT DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH
   EXTENDING SSW FROM THE LOW WILL HAVE ADVANCED TO NEAR THE I-35
   CORRIDOR IN OK.  FARTHER N...COLD FRONT NOW SURGING S ACROSS ERN CO
   AND NEB SHOULD MERGE WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE KS
   LOW.  THE COMBINED BOUNDARIES SHOULD ACCELERATE SE ACROSS SRN KS/OK
   AND N TX LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
   
   ...OK/FAR SRN KS INTO WRN AR...
   CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
   LOW-TOPPED...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
   OVER A SMALL PART OF THE SRN PLNS E/SE INTO THE SWRN PARTS OF THE
   OZARKS.
   
   MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WRN/NW OK AND SW/S CNTRL KS
   THIS AFTERNOON...IN WAKE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/FORCED ASCENT
   CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL OK INTO S CNTRL KS.  AT THE
   SAME TIME...MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION /500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS
   20 C PER 12Z AMA RAOB/ WILL OVERSPREAD REGION AS ASSOCIATED UPPER
   LOW CONTINUES EWD.  COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND
   DOWNWARD MIXING OF MOISTURE FROM THE 925/850 MB LAYER...EXPECT THAT
   MLCAPE WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER
   PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN OK/EXTREME SRN KS.
   
   DPVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   NEAR NRN OK SURFACE LOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR S FROM THE LOW ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE/LEE
   TROUGH INTO CNTRL/ERN OK SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY OR TONIGHT AS
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE TO AROUND 55-60F.  DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE
   MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 KTS IN
   NRN OK TO AOA 50 KTS CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER.  DESPITE SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED CAPE...THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG TO OFFSET THE
   POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS GIVEN STRONG
   MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   
   OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE
   HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO IN SLIGHT RISK
   AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING INTO
   A BROKEN...PARTIALLY ELEVATED SQUALL LINE OVER WRN/CNTRL AR EARLY
   THURSDAY.
   
   ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 11/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z