SPC AC 151955
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN GBN TCS 35
   NW ROW CVS AMA CSM FSI DAL GLS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN RIDGE FROM
   CENTRAL GULF NWD ACROSS MS VALLEY STATES...AND NEARLY CUT-OFF
   MID/UPPER LOW QUASISTATIONARY OVER SONORAN COAST.  EXPECT NWRN MEX
   CYCLONE TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD BEFORE TURNING
   EWD LATE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL W OF TX THROUGH END OF PERIOD. 
   BROAD FETCH OF SLY/SELY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN
   GULF...NERN MEX AND S TX AHEAD OF THAT LOW...AND OVERLYING LOW LEVEL
   WAA.  AT SFC...COASTAL/MARINE FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND S OF CRP WITH
   AID FROM DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/HEATING...AND EXTENDS FROM
   LOWER VALLEY NEAR MFE NWD TO INVOF ALI...THEN EWD PAST CRP OVER
   GULF.  EXPECT FRONT TO DRIFT FARTHER NW TOWARD COT AND PSX.
   
   ...S-CENTRAL/SW TX...
   LITTLE DPVA OR OTHER LARGE SCALE MIDLEVEL ASCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPENED FOR AT LEAST A
   FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND SFC DIABATIC
   HEATING.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
   RELATIVELY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS OVER S-CENTRAL AND DEEP S TX...PER
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND CRP/BRO RAOBS.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
   ALONG AND S OF FRONT -- WHERE SFC BASED BUOYANCY IS POSSIBLE -- DO
   NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.  EXPECT WEAK STORM-RELATIVE
   FLOWS 2-8 KM AGL AS OBSERVED IN CRP VWP...AND ABSOLUTE 0-6 KM SHEARS
   LESS THAN 30 KT...TO CONTINUE WITH MIDLEVEL GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS
   REMAINING WELL W OF AREA.  A FEW STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
   SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES.
   
   SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD NW
   OF SFC FRONT  -- IN ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO
   LFC.  WEAKNESS OF BOTH LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH
   LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z