SPC AC 161545
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0945 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004
   
   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW
   LRD JCT 60 ENE JCT 40 SE AUS 10 SSW PSX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 35 SE CNM 35
   SW LBB 25 N GAG PNC 20 SSE TUL 20 WNW SHV 20 E POE 45 SSE HUM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR S CENTRAL AND DEEP S TX
   THROUGH TONIGHT....
   
   ...TX AREA...
   THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD
   REACH THE TX BIG BEND BY TONIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...A
   MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS TX...WITHIN WHICH
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE 12Z
   SOUNDINGS FROM S TX WERE SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF  1500-2000
   J/KG...AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A DEVELOPING N-S
   BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LRD-DRT AREA NWD INTO CENTRAL TX
   THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR
   ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THE MOMENT...BUT SOME INCREASE IN MID
   LEVEL FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE.
   
   OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM INVOF THE RETREATING SURFACE
   WARM FRONT FROM ROUGHLY AUS TO VCT THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE DAYTIME
   HEATING/MIXING AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER S CENTRAL AND
   DEEP S TX MAY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM TODAY IN THE
   WARM SECTOR.  THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
   MARGINAL GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 6 C/KM AND MODEST
   VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS STILL MAY PRODUCE A FEW
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO LATER TODAY THROUGH
   TONIGHT.
   
   ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 11/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z