Nov-18-2004 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 18 12:33:49 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041118 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041118 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041118 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041118 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 181226
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004
   
   VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 30 SSE OLM
   ONP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VCT 35 SSW CLL
   45 SW LFK 30 NNW POE 20 WNW ELD 15 SSW MLC 20 S TUL SGF 20 SE POF 20
   SSW MKL 40 NNE MEI 35 SE MOB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
   NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER OK/ERN TX WILL CONTINUE
   TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE
   MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS.  CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
   VALLEY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...
   PRIMARY CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH WEAK SURFACE
   LOW AND N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE SABINE
   RIVER VALLEY.  COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO
   S-CENTRAL/SERN LA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AND
   ALLOW MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.  THOUGH
   MARGINAL HEATING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST...SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON... ENVIRONMENT WILL
   REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF
   TORNADO AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN LA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 11/18/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z