Nov-24-2004 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 24 13:09:50 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041124 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041124 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041124 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041124 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 241302
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004
   
   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LEX 25
   SSE OWB EVV BMG DAY 45 SW CMH 55 ESE LUK LEX.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS MGM
   ANB AHN AGS AYS 25 SSE TLH.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 60
   SW SEM 0A8 MSL 35 NNE MKL MVN HUF FDY YNG 15 NNE PIT 30 SSE HLG 30
   NNE CRW JKL 35 WNW HSS AVL HKY DAN 30 ENE ECG ...CONT... 25 E JAX 30
   S CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ART 10 WSW BTV
   15 SE BML 30 SSE AUG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE 7R4 30 NNE MCB
   45 SE GWO 20 SSW UOX 40 E LIT 25 ESE FYV 35 S SZL 20 SW UIN 25 ENE
   TOL.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AL...GA...AND THE
   FL PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
   US...AND THE TN/OH VALLEYS...
   
   ...AL/GA/FL/CAROLINAS...
   INTENSE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AL. 
   THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCLUDED SEVERAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERAL
   TORNADOES OVERNIGHT.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF GA/FL PANHANDLE AND INTO
   THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.  12Z TLH SOUNDING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
   WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
   OVER 7 C/KM.  SEVERAL LOCAL VAD PROFILES ALSO CURRENTLY EXHIBIT VERY
   STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE
   QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 
   ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER GA/SC...FURTHER ENHANCING SEVERE
   THREAT.  GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES WILL BE WITH ISOLATED CELLS
   THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...
   STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A THREAT OF
   EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS IN THIS AREA. 
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SC INTO PARTS OF NC OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT ROTATING ACROSS AR TOWARD
   WESTERN TN.  THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO KY AND SOUTHERN
   IND/OH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION...ALLOWING AIR MASS TO BECOME MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG/.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KY/SOUTHEAST
   IL IN VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.  THESE STORMS WILL
   PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IND INTO OH. 
   DESPITE RATHER WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
   IMPRESSIVE UPPER FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS.  IF
   SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN DEVELOP...THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
   WITH THESE STORMS.  VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
   ALSO SUGGEST A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY PERSISTENT DEEP
   CONVECTION.
   
   ..HART/BANACOS.. 11/24/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z