SPC AC 071258
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 AM CST TUE DEC 07 2004
   
   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
   HUM BHM 55 NW CHA 45 NNW CSV 45 NNE CSV 45 SSW LOZ 30 NNW TYS 40 E
   CHA 35 E ATL 15 WNW MCN 35 WNW ABY 30 SE CEW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
   LEX SDF 20 S HUF 15 E DNV 40 W FWA 25 WNW FDY 25 SW CLE 35 SSW CAK
   20 ENE UNI 25 WNW HTS 30 NNE LEX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ART 15 NW LEB 10
   ENE PSM ...CONT... 40 SE JAX 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 20 WNW
   BHM 20 SSE BWG 10 NW OWB 20 SW MVN 30 NNE ALN 25 N PIA MKG 45 SE
   OSC.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM ERN TN SWD TO THE
   GULF COAST....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL THIS MORNING WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING NEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY...REACHING THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE LOW NOW IN CENTRAL IL WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ALONG A
   LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NRN INDIANA INTO SE LOWER MI AND SW
   ONTARIO THIS EVENING.  S OF THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
   FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT...WHILE
   THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.  THE
   MAIN AREAS WITH SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS ERN
   TN/AL WITHIN THE REMNANT SQUALL LINE...THE OH VALLEY WITHIN THE MID
   LEVEL DRY SLOT AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND PERHAPS TONIGHT ACROSS
   THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS.
   
   ...TN VALLEY TO GULF COAST TODAY...
   THE REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
   THIS MORNING FROM ERN TN SSWWD TO THE GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS. 
   SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES SUGGEST THAT THE
   STRONGEST ASCENT IS SPREADING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE IL SURFACE LOW
   TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AWAY FROM THE GULF STATES. 
   IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW/FORCING MOVING AWAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   TEND TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE SWLY TODAY ACROSS AL/GA...RESULTING
   IN WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH MAY AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET THE WEAKENING
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT A FEW
   STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH THE
   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE BAND DIMINISHES
   BY THIS EVENING.  WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT E
   OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
   
   ...OH VALLEY AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...
   THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL ROTATE NEWD OVER IL THIS MORNING...
   INDIANA AROUND MIDDAY...AND OH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME
   SURFACE HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY
   SLOT...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
   RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
   VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.
   
   
   ...SE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT...
   SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE
   ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE SURFACE TRAJECTORIES
   CROSS THE GULF STREAM. WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN IN
   ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OVERNIGHT.  STILL...POOR LAPSE
   RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ONLY A SMALL
   PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 12/07/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z