Dec-11-2004 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 11 00:45:52 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041211 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041211 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041211 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041211 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 110038
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004
   
   VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W FMY 20 SSE VRB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 45 N ORF 20
   ESE NHK 30 NNW SBY 15 E PHL 15 NNE EWR 30 E POU 15 SSW ORH 10 NE
   BOS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW RIC 20 NNW SOP
   50 SSE CLT 20 NNW CAE 25 NW AGS 20 NW MCN 10 NNW CSG 30 NW AUO 20 N
   ANB 35 WSW CHA 35 WNW CSV 35 W LOZ 15 NNW JKL 25 ENE CRW EKN 40 NNE
   SHD 25 NE CHO 60 SW RIC.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
   DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF
   MID LEVEL JET CORE...TSTMS WERE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SRN
   AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
   WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF INSTABILITY BEING FURTHER EXHAUSTED BY
   LARGE SCALE OVERTURNING.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE
   TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO
   TRANSLATE NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
   LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NEAR TRIPLE
   POINT LOW AND COASTAL FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
   FROM DELMARVA/NJ AREAS...NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   HOWEVER...OVERALL CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPARSE GIVEN
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS.
   
   ...SRN FL...
   BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL. MUCH OF THE LIGHTNING
   ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
   FEW STORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD SHORE FROM THE GULF AND COULD STILL
   MOVE OVER SWRN FL AND THE KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 12/11/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z