Dec-20-2004 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 20 04:58:03 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041220 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041220 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041220 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041220 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 200452
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1052 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z.
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY HEIGHT
   RISES ALONG THE E COAST...WHILE BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
   FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. MORE
   SPECIFICALLY...VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...WEAKER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO
   CONCURRENTLY DIVE SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN THE
   LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
   TO FILL AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE WRN
   GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD/SEWD INTO THE OH
   VALLEY WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
   
   ...TX COAST...
   CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND GOES PW DATA INDICATE THAT A CP AIR
   MASS HAS INTRUDED WELL INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH 50 F
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY ALONG/S OF 23 N. INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF
   AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME MODIFICATION OF THIS
   AIR NWD TOWARD THE TX COAST WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OR
   THE LOWER 50S F BY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION...PERSISTENT
   LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/20/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z