SPC AC 230545
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 PM CST WED DEC 22 2004
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PBI 50 S FMY
   ...CONT... AQQ 10 NE MGR 10 ENE AGS 30 NE CLT 45 S EKN 35 ENE MGW 25
   N PSB 15 ENE ELM 50 SW SLK MPV 15 SE PWM.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE FULL LATITUDINAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
   DOMINATE MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  MAIN LOW OVER
   NERN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL
   ONTARIO AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NWRN U.S. DURING THE LATTER
   HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THUS...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL RESULT BY
   24/12Z FROM ONTARIO SWWD THRU THE PLAINS INTO NERN MEXICO.
   
   THE SHIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORCE THE STRONG POLAR
   COLD FRONT EWD TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER NRN AL/SRN MIDDLE
   TN WILL BE INTO SERN OH BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU ERN TN AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE.  THE
   FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY EVENING AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
   LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH THE REMNANTS LYING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS...
   
   NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM OH SWD
   THRU NWRN FL BY AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD THRU EVENING.  MUCH
   OF THE DYNAMICS/QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING SHOULD LIFT NEWD AS WELL
   BEING MORE ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX OVER THE ERN
   GREAT LAKES RATHER THAN OVER THE SERN U.S.  VERY STRONG SLY/SWLY LOW
   LEVEL FLOW IS PROJECTED TO BE FROM NWRN FL NWD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
    AREA AND NY STATE WITH 60-80 KT EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA INTO
   CENTRAL NY.  VERY STRONG 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND EWD
   OVER CENTRAL TX WITH DIVERGENT FLOW OVER ERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS
   THRU THIS AFTN.  ANOTHER JET STREAK WILL BE LIFTING NWD OVER ERN
   ONTARIO WITH ITS ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AGAIN
   SHOWING WHERE PROMINENT DYNAMIC LIFTING SHOULD BE LOCATED.
   
   AIR MASS ACROSS SERN GA INTO CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO BE MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND LIS
   TO -4 DURING THE LATE MORNING THRU AFTN HOURS INCREASING THE THREAT
   FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 
   EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
   THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.  HAVE PLACED A MINIMAL
   PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 KT AND BRN SHEAR AROUND 70 KT.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STORM MOTION TO BE 60 KT...THUS SOME QUICK SPIN
   UPS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SRN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
   
   HAVE CARRIED THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA NWD WITH THE SURFACE LOW
   WHERE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
   ACCOMPANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THRU EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 12/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z