Dec-29-2004 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 29 12:42:11 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041229 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041229 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041229 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041229 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 291235
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004
   
   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EKA 35 NE SCK
   50 NE BFL 30 ENE NID 15 SE DRA 30 WSW MLF 45 ESE U24 40 W GJT 30 NNW
   CEZ 40 ENE SOW 50 ESE PHX 70 SW GBN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKX 55 ENE ATY
   25 W EAU 30 NE LNR 40 NNE MLI 20 WSW BRL 25 E LWD 40 ENE OMA 30 ESE
   YKN 30 W BKX.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CA/NV/AZ/UT...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
   ASHORE NEAR LAX/SAN.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NV/UT AND NORTHERN
   AZ.  COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
   FORECAST ALONG THIS AXIS...ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
   AND NORTH OF TRACK OF PRIMARY VORT MAX.  WHILE LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
   ARE FORECAST.
   
   ...MIDWEST STATES...
   NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT OVER THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  STRONG LOW
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
   PARTS OF SD/MN/IA.  SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN
   THIS REGION AFTER 06Z...WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO POSE
   A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..HART.. 12/29/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z