SPC AC 071728
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CST WED JAN 07 2004
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX NIR SAT TPL
   TYR ELD GWO 40 ENE CBM BHM TOI 20 ESE PNS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   MODELS INDICATE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN
   AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY.  TO
   THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC...NEAR 30N...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   LIFTING OUT OF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST. 
   THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS LARGER-SCALE UPPER RIDGE
   BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EAST OF RIDGE AXIS...IS
   PROGGED TO AMPLIFY/DIG IN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...
   FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.
   
   ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
   IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET...NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WAKE OF COLD
   SURFACE RIDGE...WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AND
   SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.  WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
   APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO MODIFY...AIR MASS HAS REMAINED
   RELATIVELY MOIST ABOVE SURFACE RIDGE...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/
   EASTERN TEXAS...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD.
   
   INCREASING LARGE SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
   DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  THOUGH
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PROGGED TO STEEP SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH
   WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE CAPE...MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ACTIVITY...GENERALLY BASED ABOVE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION... MAY
   DEVELOP IN AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON BY/SHORTLY
   AFTER 12Z.  THE ETA MODEL SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IN A SWATH A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN AVN.  HOWEVER...
   BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE BY MID DAY
   ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...THEN SPREAD EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
   ALABAMA BY THURSDAY EVENING.  DESTABILIZATION EASTWARD INTO THE
   EASTERN GULF STATES DOES NOT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO
   MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/07/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z