SPC AC 230833
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
   CRP 15 W ALI 20 SW SAT 25 WSW JCT 40 W BWD 65 SSE CDS 15 SW FSI 30 S
   ADM 45 N CLL 50 NW POE 30 SE ESF 10 SSE 7R4.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 65 ESE SOW
   35 E GNT 30 S LVS 35 W CVS 15 WSW AMA 40 W P28 15 N CNU 30 NW HRO 35
   WNW DYR 35 WNW MSL 0A8 PNS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AND ERN
   TX AND SRN LA....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS
   PERIOD AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA EJECTS FROM NW MEXICO INTO AR
   IN RESPONSE TO A COMPLEX SERIES OF EVENTS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS
   AK AND THE E PACIFIC.
   
   NEWD RETREAT OF DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER THE NERN STATES WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING OF S/SWLY FLOW OVER THE WRN
   GULF/ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY/EARLY
   SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK/LA AND AR.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
   INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NWRN GULF...AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF
   WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL FARTHER WEST LIKELY WILL CONFINE GREATEST
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN TO MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE 
   TX GULF CSTL PLN.
   
   ...SRN/SERN TX INTO SRN LA...
   INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF EJECTING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO YIELD FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/
   EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER SRN/ERN TX BY EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER IN THE DAY AS DEEP SWLY SHEAR
   INCREASES TO AOA 50 KTS AND A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE DEVELOPS
   ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.  WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK...COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS
   WITH MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
   MID 60S SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL SCALE
   BOWS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF
   LA BEFORE PROPAGATION CARRIES STORMS BEYOND AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN EARLY SUNDAY.
   
   ...CNTRL/NW TX INTO SRN OK...
   A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE AND
   ACCOMPANY MAIN UPPER VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING BAJA
   TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ACCESS TO COLDER MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES /500 MB READINGS AOB MINUS 20C/ AND STRONGER...MORE
   FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  WHILE DEEP SHEAR MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
   RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER SE...WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF SUPERCELLS. IN FACT...THE LESSER SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY FAVOR
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS GIVEN THAT VEERED FLOW IN THE
   850-700 MB LAYER AND BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
   LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. LINEAR FORCING AND EXPECTED BACK/VEER
   PATTERN OF AREA WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
   LIMITED TO HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 01/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z