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Jan-29-2004 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   SPC AC 291726
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2004
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MIA 30 S PBI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 20 WNW EAT
   15 N PUW 35 WSW BTM 20 N IDA TWF 30 WNW 4LW 40 SSW OTH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 10 WSW BTR 40 NW
   GPT MOB 20 SW PNS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  THE
   MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WLYS NOW MOVING
   ACROSS NRN MX WILL TRANSLATE INTO S TX EARLY FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE
   WRN GULF BASIN BY EARLY SATURDAY.  UPSTREAM...IMPULSE OFF THE PAC NW
   COAST WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD NRN CA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE NRN GRT
   BASIN ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF AK.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WRN
   GULF BASIN AS THE MX SYSTEM HEADS EAST.  AN OLD FRONT SITUATED
   ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT AND MOVE NWD INTO SRN
   FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE PAC NW
   DISTURBANCE...MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NWRN STATES AND NRN GRT
   BASIN REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...SRN TX...
   H5 THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY.
   LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN
   THE DAY BENEATH THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BUT...AS WEAK
   CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL
   TAKE PLACE AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME DIFFLUENT OVER LAND...BOTH
   HOSTILE TO SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.
   
   ...SRN LA...
   WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
   APPROACHING MX DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
   PERHAPS EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE PERIOD
   ACROSS THE COASTAL LA COUNTIES....BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
   
   ...S FL...
   GFS/ETA SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD INTO EXTREME SRN FL
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.  WARM SECTOR LI/S
   GO BELOW 0C FRIDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SRN STREAM JETLET...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP.
   
   ...PAC NW/GRT BASIN...
   POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD
   TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/29/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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