SPC AC 270826
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI 40 NNE MCN
   35 NNW LGC 20 SSE BHM 15 ESE LUL 20 SW 7R4 ...CONT... 45 ENE CRP 35
   SSE COT 55 NW LRD 20 NNW DRT 60 N DRT 15 SE BWD 15 WNW DAL 30 ENE
   DUA 30 W MKO 20 SSE P28 40 SW MCK 15 NE LBF 30 ESE BUB 30 NW LWD 30
   WSW CID 35 NNE RST 40 NNW EAU 65 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 WNW CLE 30 SW
   PKB 20 SW BLF 40 NE CLT 35 SSW ILM.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD TO THE
   PLAINS TODAY...AND BEGIN TO SLOW IN ITS EWD PROGRESSION TOMORROW AS
   THE SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS
   PART OF A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
   LOW WILL MOVE NEWD FROM MN/WI TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND SEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND E TX.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND
   TX...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NE TX NEWD TO IL/INDIANA...
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM SW MO INTO ERN
   OK AND NW AR...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND DEVELOP
   EWD DURING THE DAY TO THE MS RIVER.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
   70S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
   ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT
   BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR AND REMAIN LARGELY
   PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
   AREA.  A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN LA WSWWD ACROSS ERN AND CENTRAL TX. 
   THOUGH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG APPEAR LIKELY IN THE WARM
   SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
   STRONGER MID LEVEL WLYS...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK.  A
   FEW MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
   
   
   ...ERN KS AREA...
   THOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE W OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...STEEP LOW-MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY
   DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SECONDARY COOL SURGE/LOW AMPLITUDE
   MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING ESEWD OVER THIS AREA.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 03/27/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z